Thursday's selloff was one of the sharpest and most devastating in crypto market history: More than $2.6 billion was liquidated as bitcoin BTC$66,205.66 tumbled to $60,000 to mark its lowest point since October 2024.

The drawdown led to bitcoin being the third most "oversold" in its history, according to the relative strength index (RSI), a momentum oscillator that tracks market conditions. Oversold conditions of this magnitude historically precede a major bounce.

The situation grew a bit brighter as Asia woke up, with bitcoin bouncing from $60,000 to above $65,000 while ether ETH$1,918.04 came off a low of $1,750 to trade back at $1,920.

Even so, the broader crypto market remains in a bear market. Privacy coin zcash ZEC$227.82 has lost 34% of its value over the past week, while optimism OP$0.1733, solana SOL$81.74 and ether are all dealing with losses of around 30%.

Traditional markets have also struggled in recent days. The Nasdaq 100 index dropped 6% since Jan. 28, and precious metals gold and silver are down by 12% and 38%, respectively, over the same period.

Derivatives positioning

• The crypto futures market is worth less than $100 billion for the first time since March 2025, as traders continue to reduce risk as prices slide and liquidations cause wealth destruction.
• Over $2.6 billion in leveraged futures bets have been liquidated, or forced closed, by exchanges due to margin shortage in 24 hours. Out of that, over $2.10 billion were long bets. This shows the degree of bullish leverage that was deployed around the pivotal $70,000 support, which was breached Thursday.
• Open interest (OI) has declined in futures tied to all major tokens, including recent outperformer HYPE.
• Annualized perpetual funding rates for major tokens such as BTC, SOL, XRP and DOGE have flipped negative as price crashes triggered demand for bearish bets. The negative rates could see arbitrageurs resort to reverse cash and carry bets.
• Bitcoin's annualized 30-day implied volatility surged to nearly 100% late Thursday as traders scrambled to buy puts, with some snapping up these bearish bets at strike prices as low as $20,000. Since then, volatility has pulled back to under 70%. A similar pattern is seen in ether's implied volatility.
• Still, bitcoin and ether short-term put options continue to trade at a volatility premium of 20 or more points to calls, a sign of lingering downside worries. Puts remain pricier at the long end as well.
• Options tied to BlackRock's IBIT ETF saw record activity Thursday, with traders rushing to buy puts. The one-year skew rose to over 25 points, reflecting a massive premium for put options, indicating peak fear.

Token talk

• The altcoin sector presented a couple of unlikely winners despite the broader market decline on Thursday. Privacy-focused decred DCR$23.66 rose by 31% in 24 hours, seemingly unperturbed by the carnage as it added to a rally that has lifted it from $17.4 to $24.2.
• HyperLiquid's HYPE token continues to perform well, relatively speaking, as it remains up 11% this week despite falling 4% in the past 24 hours.
• XRP was one of the most volatile altcoins, plunging by more than 30% before bouncing by 21%. Trading volume topped $14 billion, a 143% rise over 24 hours.
• The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) and CoinDesk 80 (CD80) both fell by around 6% in the past 24 hours, but the concerning corner of the market was DeFi, with the DeFi Select Index (DFX) underperforming the wider market with a decline of more than 10%.
• CoinMarketCap's "altcoin season" indicator is now at 24/100, down from Wednesday's high of 32/100, suggesting investors are seeking safer, less volatile assets like bitcoin or stablecoins.