Stellar Price Prediction: XLM Risks Further Drop to $0.14 as Bearish Outlook Persists

Highlights:

• The Stellar price is in the red, currently exchanging hands at $0.19, marking a 6% decrease today.
• The Bitcoin data show an intense bearish grip, as the open interest slips and the funding rate turns negative.
• The technical outlook shows mounting selling pressure, as XLM risks a drop to $0.14.

Stellar (XLM) price remains in the red and has fallen below $0.20 on Friday, currently at $0.19. The bearish mood is present in the whole crypto market, led by major altcoins like Bitcoin (BTC), which is down 6% to $82,000. Moreover, the XLM Open Interest (OI) has declined, and the funding rates in the derivatives market are negative, reinforcing the bearish grip. Technically, when the momentum indicators are weak, an additional XLM correction will occur.

The Stellar derivatives data are in favour of a bearish position. According to the data about the OI-Weighted Funding rate of CoinGlass, there are more traders who bet that the price of XLM will decrease further than the ones who expect the price to rise. On Thursday, the metric became negative and has been at -0.0051% on Friday, which implies that shorts are paying longs and bearishness towards XLM.

The futures Open Interest (OI) of XLM is down to $106.50 million on Friday and has been continuously decreasing since the high of January 6 at $166.99 million. This decline in OI indicates a significant decline in the participation of investors, and it shows a negative perspective.

XLM Risks Further Drop to $0.14

The daily XLM/USD chart tells a cautious story, as the bears have the upper hand. The coin has been in a prolonged downtrend within a falling parallel channel. The daily chart shows price currently at $0.19, down nearly 8% over the past seven days and sitting under both the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $0.21 and the 200-day SMA at $0.31. These levels are crucial reference points for long-term traders.

If price remains below the $0.21 area, the next likely support sits at the $0.190-$0.14 range, which is a previous strong demand zone.

The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is at 34.16, showing that the Stellar price is close to oversold levels. This hints at some buying potential if new catalysts emerge or institutional demand picks up. Still, momentum is weak, and traders are waiting for confirmation before jumping in. Notably, the MACD is negative, cautioning traders of further downside as the selling pressure mounts in the market.

Meanwhile, if XLM price fails to bounce above the 50-day SMA, it may test lower supports, with $0.14 as a last line for buyers. On the other hand, if Stellar can hold above the immediate resistance at $0.21, it could attract more big buyers. This could rekindle a rebound towards the $0.25-$0.31 resistance zones. But if selling continues and support fails, a deeper drop toward the $0.08 low could tempt long-term accumulators looking for cheap entries.