Visa (V) Stock: Earnings Win Overshadowed by Expense Worries

TLDR

• Visa delivered Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings of $3.17 per share and $10.9 billion in revenue, topping Wall Street forecasts
• Holiday shopping drove payment volume up 8% while cross-border transactions climbed 12% year-over-year
• Stock declined 1.9% after results as investors focused on rising expense projections and decelerating cross-border growth
• Company forecasts low double-digit revenue growth for Q2 and full fiscal year 2026
• Visa trades down 5.4% in 2026 versus S&P 500’s 1.4% gain

Visa exceeded Wall Street expectations for its latest quarter. Investors sent shares lower anyway.

Visa Inc., V

The payments giant earned $3.17 per share in its fiscal first quarter ending December 31. Analysts expected $3.14 per share.

Revenue reached $10.9 billion versus the $10.69 billion consensus estimate. Both metrics jumped 15% from last year’s quarter.

Strong holiday shopping fueled the results. Payment volumes increased 8% during the period.

Cross-border volumes rose 12%. Processed transactions climbed 9%.

CEO Ryan McInerney pointed to resilient consumer spending as the driver. Higher-income households led the charge during the holiday season.

Record shopping activity and surging online sales boosted transaction volumes. Lower and middle-income consumers faced tighter budgets.

President Trump’s tariffs pushed prices higher. This limited purchasing power for many households.

Guidance Concerns Pressure Stock

Shares dropped 1.9% Thursday despite the earnings win. The stock has fallen 5.4% so far in 2026.

That trails the S&P 500’s 1.4% year-to-date advance. Visa is down 3.3% over the past year.

Evercore ISI analysts blamed higher operating expense guidance for the selloff. They also noted softness in cross-border metrics.

Cross-border volume growth of 12% represents a deceleration from prior quarters. These figures track global trade and travel in real time.

Market watchers scrutinize these numbers following Trump’s tariff announcements. Visa’s CFO said tariffs haven’t meaningfully impacted results yet.

The company projects low double-digit net revenue growth for Q2 ending in March. Operating expenses should grow in the mid-teens.

Earnings per share growth is expected at the high end of low double digits. Full-year fiscal 2026 guidance calls for low double-digit growth across key metrics.

Stablecoin Push and Regulatory Headwinds

Visa is integrating stablecoins into its payment infrastructure. The company views digital tokens as a growth opportunity.

A December pilot program lets some U.S. banks settle transactions using Circle’s USDC stablecoin. Management called the initiative “additive” to existing business.

Political pressure is mounting on the payments industry. Trump called for capping credit card interest rates at 10% for one year.

The current average U.S. credit card rate sits at 19.65%. Some analysts believe the impact would be less severe than feared.

Visa and Mastercard agreed in November to cut merchant fees by 0.1 percentage points for five years. The settlement resolves a 2005 antitrust lawsuit.

Court approval is still pending. Visa declared a 67-cent quarterly dividend per class A share.

The payment goes to shareholders of record on February 10. Seaport Research Partners analysts noted Visa “tends to guide conservatively” and consistently outperforms projections.

Peer Mastercard also reported strong quarterly results Thursday. American Express reports earnings Friday morning.

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