Bitcoin Santa Rally Outlook: Analysts Say BTC Could Rise Before 2025 Year End
- Bitcoin enters the final week of the year as falling fear and improving liquidity support short-term optimism
- Declining volatility and gold’s record rally raise expectations for a possible Bitcoin catch-up move
- Fed caution continues to limit upside, but low fear keeps hopes alive for a modest Bitcoin Santa rally
Bitcoin enters the last week of the year with investors eyeing whether the holiday trading is able to provide a late lift. Market fear has subsided, and the liquidity is slowly coming back after weeks of fear. Analysts say these shifts may be able to support a short-term move, despite unevenness in the broader market.
Volatility has declined sharply in the past few sessions. The VIX, which is often referred to as the fear index, has fallen to its lowest point in 2025. Lower volatility often indicates more settled conditions. Investors tend to take more risks when fear is fading. That change in behavior often benefits assets like Bitcoin during year-end trading.
Analysts Eye Bitcoin Catch-Up After Gold Rally
Ben Emons, the founder and managing director at FedWatch Advisors, said liquidity patterns right now matter more than headlines this time of year. He added that Bitcoin has a tendency to rally into the end of December more often on capital flows.
“But the return of liquidity could help drive prices higher, at least in the near term, even if the larger view remained mixed,” said Emons.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency also has been slower than gold in recent weeks. Gold rallied to new all-time highs as Bitcoin failed to gain any traction. This split has caught the eye of market watchers.
Some analysts say Bitcoin has room to catch up if sentiment turns positive. Emons said performance gaps between gold and BTC could present a window for late-year buying.
Also Read: Bitcoin Daily Candle Shows Indecision with $93,000 Target in Sight
Santa Rally Still Possible Despite Fed Uncertainty
Federal Reserve policy continues to shape the direction of the market. Recent data in the United States has shown robust economic growth and inflation near 2.9%. That level keeps the Fed wary of moving too quickly with interest rate cuts. Emons anticipates multiple cuts next year, which may help the value of riskier assets like Bitcoin over time.
In the short run, uncertainty over when the Fed will act continues to trouble bond markets. That has spilled over to the trading of cryptocurrencies, too. Analysts say a full breakout looks improbable before the end of the year. That being said, there could still be a modest Santa rally if buying pressure comes back.
With fear below and liquidity on the rise, BTC may have some surprises left in its last trading sessions. Now, investors are watching closely to determine whether the year will close with a pickup in momentum or some lackluster consolidation.
Also Read: Ethereum Lags Behind Bitcoin as Past Cycle Pattern Repeats in 2025
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