Meta Stock: Analysts See 47% Upside — Is Now the Time to Buy?

TLDR

• Meta reported full-year 2025 revenue of $200.97 billion, up 22% year over year
• Q4 2025 advertising revenue rose 24% to $58.14 billion
• Daily active people reached 3.58 billion in December 2025, up 7%
• 2026 capex is forecast at $115–$135 billion, a steep jump from $72.22 billion in 2025
• Wall Street consensus is Moderate Buy with an average price target of $843.57

Meta’s advertising business just posted one of its strongest years yet, but the bill for its AI ambitions is about to get a lot bigger.

Meta Platforms, Inc., META

Full-year 2025 revenue came in at $200.97 billion, up 22% from the prior year. That is a rare number for a company of this size. The Family of Apps segment, which includes Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger, drove almost all of it, pulling in $198.76 billion in revenue and $102.47 billion in operating income.

The ad business itself held up well across the year. Ad impressions grew 12% and the average price per ad rose 9%, meaning both volume and pricing moved in the right direction. That combination does not happen by accident.

Q4 was the headline quarter. Advertising revenue reached $58.14 billion for the three months ending December 2025, up 24%. Daily active people across the Family of Apps hit 3.58 billion in December, up 7% year over year.

AI Is Already Earning Its Keep

AI is not just a future promise at Meta — it is already doing work inside the ad machine. Meta’s targeting tools and campaign automation have both been upgraded using AI, and advertisers are seeing better performance as a result. That improvement helps Meta defend its position in digital advertising against rivals.

This is worth noting because it changes the narrative slightly. Most of the AI spending debate is about future payoff, but some of that payoff is already showing up in the core business metrics.

The company also reported that its AI assistant, Meta AI, has been growing in usage across its apps, though the company has not broken out specific monetization figures for that product yet.

The Spending Jump Is Real

Here is where things get harder to ignore. Meta spent $72.22 billion on capital expenditures in 2025. For 2026, it is guiding to $115–$135 billion. That is a potential 88% increase at the high end.

Total 2026 expenses are forecast at $162–$169 billion, up from the prior year as the company builds out data centers, buys chips, and expands its infrastructure footprint.

Reality Labs continues to be a drag. The unit posted just $2.21 billion in revenue for 2025 while reducing overall operating profit by $19.19 billion. Meta said 2026 losses from Reality Labs are expected to stay around the same level.

Wall Street is not running for the exits. Meta holds a Moderate Buy consensus rating on MarketBeat, backed by 4 Strong Buy, 38 Buy, and 8 Hold ratings. The average 12-month price target sits at $843.57.

Analysts backed the spending plan after Meta’s strong Q4 results, but that support will be tested if AI monetization does not keep pace with the rising cost base.

The average 12-month analyst price target of $843.57 implies around 46.69% upside from recent levels.

Final Thoughts

Meta’s ad business is still one of the strongest in tech, and Wall Street’s 38 Buy ratings suggest most analysts like what they see. The 2026 spending ramp is the main thing to watch — but with a $843.57 average price target and 47% implied upside, the bull case is hard to ignore.

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