SOL’s ​Bear Flag Targets $86 Amid Weakening Onchain Activity

Solana’s native token, SOL (SOL), fell 52% from Sept. 18 to Nov. 21, following the broader altcoin market crash that saw Bitcoin hit a seven-month low of $80,000. As a result, SOL price has lost key long-term support levels, with onchain and technical data suggesting a deeper correction below $100.

Key takeaways:

• Solana’s total value locked dropped to a six-month low of $8.67 billion. 

• Solana’s memecoin weekly trading volume has collapsed by 95% in 2025. 

• A bear pennant projects SOL price to drop toward $86.

Solana’s TVL drops to June levels

The total value locked (TVL) on the Solana blockchain has dropped by over 34% to a six-month low $8.67 billion as of Wednesday from its peak of $13.22 billion reached on Sept. 14. Solana’s TVL has remained below $10 billion over the last 30 days.

Data from DefiLlama shows that the subsequent drop in TVL was led by Jito liquid staking, with a 53% decrease since mid-September. Other major decentralized applications, such as Jupiter DEX, Raydium and Sanctum protocol, registered 30%, 46% and 46% declines, respectively.

Related: Solana ETFs record 7-day inflow streak despite price slump

SOL’s potential to drop below $100 is supported by the decline in Solana’s network fees, active addresses and transaction count over the last seven days.

Solana’s chain fees totaled $3.43 million over the past week, representing an 11% decrease from the previous week and a 23% drop from last month.

Similarly, the number of active addresses (AAs) on Solana’s base layer decreased by 7.8% over the same period, while the number of transactions decreased by 6.3% over seven days. 

The drops in AAs, transaction count and network fees suggest reduced onchain demand for SOL, adding to the overhead pressure. 

Solana memecoin volume collapses

The fall in Solana’s TVL mirrors the bearishness in Solana-based memecoins as these flashed red across the board.

Solana-based memecoins have posted double-digit losses on the weekly and monthly time frames, as shown in the figure below. A majority of these tokens are down 10% to 25% from local highs. 

This drop in the prices of Solana-based memecoins was accompanied by a decrease in DEX activity on the layer-1 blockchain. The weekly DEX volume on Solana attributed to memecoins remains muted, having dropped 95% to $2.7 billion from its peak of $56 billion recorded in January, according to data from Blockworks Research. 

The decline in memecoin activity on Solana indicates low network activity and waning usage, which negatively impacts demand and the SOL price. 

SOL’s “bear pennant” targets $90,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicate that SOL is trading below a bearish pennant, suggesting a risk of further downside.

A bear pennant is a downward continuation pattern that occurs after a significant drop, followed by a consolidation period at the lower end of the price range.

A break below the pennant’s support line at $135 last week cleared the path for the next leg down for the altcoin. The measured target of the bear pennant is at $86, or a 32% decline from its current price level.

Before reaching this level, SOL could find support from the 200-week EMA at $118, where bulls are expected to mount aggressive defense.

“A bear pennant is forming on Solana’s four-hour chart,” said pseudonymous leverage trader Grim in an X post on Wednesday, adding:

As Cointelegraph reported, SOL price breaking below the support line of the symmetrical triangle at $126 would signal that the bears are in control, leading to a deeper correction toward $95.

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