Customs chief expects revenue collection to hit P939 billion this year

By Aubrey Rose A. Inosante, Reporter

THE Bureau of Customs (BoC) said revenue collection may come in below target this year due to slower import activity amid the rice import ban and the corruption scandal.

According to a document obtained by BusinessWorld, the BoC collected P898.75 billion in revenues as of Dec. 16, which is equivalent to 94% of the P958.71-billion full-year target.

For the first half of December, Customs revenues reached P39.25 billion, just 51% of the P77.91-billion monthly goal, with two weeks remaining.

Customs Commissioner Ariel F. Nepomuceno said the agency’s emerging revenue forecast for 2025 is at P939.4 billion, 2% lower than the full-year target.

“From the P958-billion target for this year, it was adjusted after considering all external factors,” he said in an interview with BusinessWorld at the Port of Manila on Dec. 16. “From P958 billion, it became P939 billion. So the revenue losses have already been taken into account.”

Mr. Nepomuceno said a technical working group has submitted the latest 2025 revenue projection to the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC).

For 2026, Customs is now targeting P1.003.8 trillion in revenues, 0.99% lower than the previous goal of P1.013 trillion. The collection target for 2027 was also reduced by 1.70% to P1.054 trillion.

Mr. Nepomuceno said improved collection efficiency has helped sustain revenue performance this year even as import volumes continue to decline.

“In spite of the decrease in the volume of imports, collections still increased. This means that over the last four months, we’ve shown that collection efficiency can be used as a measure,” he said.

However, Mr. Nepomuceno noted that importers have been buying less over the past three to four months, citing broader economic factors.

“It could be the external factors — maybe the confidence level of importers, how much they decide to stock, and how much they expect consumers will buy,” he said.

A corruption scandal involving flood control projects has dampened investor and consumer confidence, and slowed government spending and economic activity.

Mr. Nepomuceno said the decline in infrastructure spending may have led to a slowdown in imports of construction materials in recent months.

The government’s ban on rice imports, which began in September and is set to end in December, may have also affected BoC’s ability to reach its revenue target this year.

Customs Assistant Commissioner Vincent Philip C. Maronilla said Philippine import volumes have been “fluctuating” throughout the year after the rice import ban.

He noted that overall volumes have inched up in recent days, but were still down by an annual 2–3% in early December.

“But if you look at the volume for consumption entries, the ones that are being paid, it’s a bit down, more substantial. With that, we’re still reeling from the effects of the rice ban,” he told BusinessWorld on the sidelines of an event on Dec. 18.

Mr. Maronilla still expects the broader economy to gradually regain momentum.

“We’re averaging, for the past few days, about P4 billion a day, P4.5 (billion). We’re hoping that we can be able to sustain the momentum to catch up for at least the December revenue target and bring that momentum going to 2026,” he said.

PESO WEAKNESS
Customs officials also saw the recent peso’s weakness as a factor shaping import behavior.

“How currency exchange rates affect the behavior of importers is the number one consideration. They try to predict the consumers’ buying power. That’s the indirect impact on volume,” Mr. Nepomuceno said.

The peso has breached the P59-a-dollar mark several times since November and sank to a record low of P59.22 on Dec. 9.

“But the direct impact on collection, a weaker peso means more pesos for every dollar,” the BoC chief said. “From a revenue standpoint, that’s maybe favorable.”

Mr. Maronilla said that the currency’s depreciation is “supposedly positive for the Bureau” when converting dollar‑denominated valuations into pesos.

“A weaker peso will mean higher peso value of imports and therefore increased Customs duties collections,” Foundation for Economic Freedom President Calixto V. Chikiamco said in a Viber message.

He said the same applies to higher oil prices, which would raise the value of imports and therefore customs collections, assuming import volumes remain unchanged.