Bitcoin Breakout Flips Derivatives Sentiment as Analysts Eye $150K in 2026

Bitcoin’s surge to a two-month high is triggering early signs of a sentiment shift across the derivatives landscape, according to the latest Bybit x Block Scholes Crypto Derivatives Analytics report. 

After more than a month of consolidation, BTC’s thrust into the upper-$90,000 range has lifted broader market appetite, pulling futures open interest and options positioning in a more constructive direction. Sideways trading that dominated the end of 2025 gave way to a sharp breakout this week, with Bitcoin briefly approaching $98,000 before settling slightly lower. 

According to data from CoinCodex, the crypto market leader has surged over 6% in the past 7 days. Following a slight drop in the past 24 hours, BTC trades at $95,884 at the time of writing. 

That move over the past week has brought the altcoin market higher and set off a noticeable reaction across both perpetual futures and options markets.

Perpetual Futures Show Rising Risk Appetite

Open interest in perpetual futures has climbed sharply, surpassing $8 billion across the nine major tokens tracked by Bybit and Block Scholes, according to the report.

That marks a return to levels last observed during Bitcoin’s early-January rally to $94,000. The breakout in spot prices appears to be attracting new leveraged long positions as well, as reflected by a steep rise in the firms’ Risk-Appetite Index.

Block Scholes BTC and ETH Risk Appetite Indexes (Source: Bybit)

Funding rates for select altcoins have also moved higher, indicating fresh demand for long exposure. Ether and other major assets are seeing additional support from continued inflows into their respective spot ETFs, which remain positive year-to-date.

Options Markets Shift From Bearish to Neutral Skew

Options markets are undergoing their own sentiment reset. 

Short-dated Bitcoin and Ether volatility smiles, which were previously tilted toward a bearish put premium, have shifted toward a neutral skew. The adjustment mirrors the brief sentiment flip earlier in January when BTC touched $94,000, though that shift reversed as soon as the price failed to hold the level.

This time, the analysts say the $94,000 to $96,000 region remains an important trigger. A sustained hold above this zone could push options skew more decisively in favor of calls. However, a fallback below the range may once again restore a preference for downside protection.

BTCUSDT Put-Call Skew (Source: Bybit)

Despite the size of the spot move, implied volatility has remained relatively subdued. Realized volatility has drifted near 38 percent, while short-tenor implied volatility sits close to its lower historical bounds, signaling markets are recalibrating rather than bracing for disruption.

Spot ETF Inflows Reinforce Market Strength

Spot flows continue to underpin market sentiment. 

Bitcoin spot ETFs have already recorded more than $660 million in net inflows year-to-date, including a $760 million haul on Jan. 13. This is a single-day level not seen since the Oct. 10 liquidation event. 

The report noted that Ether is experiencing a similar boost, supported by both ETF activity and strong on-chain fundamentals, with roughly 30 percent of the total supply now staked.

“Recent gains bode well for our 2026 Bitcoin target of $150,000, though the road ahead will likely be marked by turbulence as geopolitical and U.S. monetary policy risks cloud the macro outlook,” Tan added.

Term Structures and Leverage Signal Confidence

The report also notes that futures term structures for both Bitcoin and Ether have clustered around similar values across maturities, indicating consistent pricing of risk. 

Seven-day BTC futures are trading with a notable 10 percent premium to spot, underscoring strong demand for leveraged upside exposure.

Still, history shows that derivatives behavior remains sensitive to Bitcoin’s ability to maintain key levels. When BTC failed to hold $94,000 earlier this month, volatility smiles quickly reverted to pricing a put premium, the analysts said. The same risk applies if the current breakout loses momentum.

Outlook Hinges on BTC Holding the Upper-$90K Zone

While early indicators point to improving sentiment, the market’s next phase hinges on whether Bitcoin can stay anchored in the upper-$90,000 range. 

A sustained hold could deepen the bullish shift across derivatives, while a breakdown may reset positioning back toward downside hedging.