ETH Weekly Strategy: Resistance Test and Consolidation in the Uptrend (January 19, 2026)

Ethereum holds critical support levels despite a weekly 2.75% decline within the broad uptrend; market structure signals a consolidation phase, and the multi-timeframe resistance cluster will be direction-determining.

ETH in Weekly Market Summary

This week, Ethereum (ETH) traded in the 3.177,68$ – 3.368,82$ range, losing 2.75% in value and closing at 3.214,02$. Weekly volume remained solid at 14,65 billion$, but price action tightened into a narrow consolidation band. While the primary trend remains upward, the short-term trend filter gives a bear signal, with 3.559,56$ resistance dominant. RSI balances at 53,63 in the neutral zone, while MACD preserves bullish momentum with a positive histogram. ETH holds above EMA20 (3.190,18$), sustaining short-term bullish structure. In the bigger picture, the market shows signals of transitioning from accumulation to early distribution; however, as long as key supports hold firm, trend integrity is maintained. For position traders, this is a period of strategic waiting and level-based entry opportunities.

Trend Structure and Market Phases

Long-Term Trend Analysis

On long-term charts, ETH maintains its primary uptrend; price is positioned above key EMA200 and EMA50 levels, with higher lows confirming trend strength. Weekly closes occurred above the main trendline around 3.000$, so market structure remains intact. Momentum indicators (RSI and MACD) are away from overbought/oversold zones, showing a healthy pullback. In the macro context, assuming we’re in the growth phase of the crypto cycle, ETH’s smart contract ecosystem leadership supports the trend. However, the bear signal in the trend filter increases short-term correction risk – provided the trend stays solid above the 3.083$ major support.

Accumulation/Distribution Analysis

Market phase analysis shows accumulation characteristics in recent weeks: volume profile supports low volatility, price touched the lower band (3.177$) and recovered, with signs of institutional buying. Per Wyckoff methodology, this could be a ‘spring’-like test and re-accumulation. Distribution patterns are not yet dominant; while there were ut-up rejections at the upper band (3.368$), their low-volume nature makes them weak. Out of 16 strong levels, the 1D/3D/1W distribution of 6 supports/11 resistances points to a balanced but resistance-heavy phase. For accumulation to continue, volume increase and bounces from supports are required; otherwise, early distribution signals could strengthen.

Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Daily Chart View

On the daily timeframe, ETH holds above EMA20, preserving short-term bullish momentum; MACD histogram is expanding positively and RSI is balanced around 53. On 1D, there’s 1 support/5 resistance confluence: main resistance cluster concentrates in the 3.260-3.327$ range (score 79/63). Price found support at 3.214$ but failed to reach upper resistances – suggesting a tightened flag formation. Confluence strengthens with the 3.083$ support aligning with the daily trendline; downside break signals trend break, upside signals momentum increase. Position traders should monitor daily closes.

Weekly Chart View

From the weekly perspective, a more balanced view with 3 supports/2 resistances: main support at 3.083$ (score 60), confluent with weekly EMA50. Upper resistance at 3.658$ (65 score), aligned with Fibonacci 0.618 extension. Weekly candle shows doji-like indecision – trend intact, but 2.75% decline slows momentum. On 3D timeframe, 2S/4R increases resistance pressure. Overall confluence indicates consolidation is healthy for trend continuation but carries risk due to BTC correlation.

Critical Decision Points

Key levels that will determine direction: Supports: 3.083$ (major, 60 score – break risks 2.900$), secondary 3.177$. Resistances: 3.260$ (79 score – first test), 3.327$ (63), 3.658$ (65 – strategic target). These levels have strong confluence on 1D/3D/1W; close above 3.260$ triggers bullish scenario, below 3.083$ gives bear control. Volume profile shows POC (Point of Control) density at these levels – volume confirmation required on breaks. Check detailed charts in ETH Spot Analysis.

Weekly Strategy Recommendation

In Upside Case

Bullish scenario: daily/weekly close above 3.260$ resistance. First target 3.327$, then 3.658$ Fibonacci extension. Strategy: Long positions from 3.200-3.220$ range, stop-loss below 3.083$ (R/R 1:3+). Upside objective 3.658$, macro target 4.000$ cycle top. Momentum increases with hold above EMA20; await volume confirmation for leveraged entries using ETH Futures Analysis data. Risk: BTC weakness.

In Downside Case

Bearish scenario: close below 3.083$ support. Targets 3.000$, risk 2.900$. Strategy: Short opportunities on 3.260$ rejection, stop above 3.327$. Aligned with downside trend filter; keep position size small. Monitor volume increase for distribution phase confirmation. Defense: hold above 3.000$ required for main trend.

Bitcoin Correlation

ETH shows high correlation with BTC (%0.92+); BTC down 2.53% at 92.710$ in uptrend but Supertrend gives bear signal – warning for altcoins. BTC supports at 92.396$, 90.907$, 89.049$ critical; breaks push ETH below 3.000$. Resistances 94.151$, 96.154$, 98.500$ – BTC recovery turns ETH consolidation into bullish momentum. BTC dominance rise delays alt season; ETH traders should prioritize BTC levels.

Conclusion: Key Points for Next Week

Next week focus: 3.260$ resistance test and 3.083$ support defense. Volume increase for bullish confluence, 1D/1W closes. Monitor BTC 92k supports and dominance. Follow general market updates for ETH and other analyses. As long as market structure preserves the trend, accumulation continues; breaks require strategic repositioning. Opportunities can be captured with disciplined level-based trading.