RAY Weekly Analysis Jan 24

RAY closed the week with a -2.33% decline, consolidating at $1.01, while the main downtrend maintains its dominance; holding or breaking critical supports will determine the next market phase.

RAY in Weekly Market Summary

RAY moved in a narrow range of $0.99 – $1.05 last week, balancing at $1.01. Weekly change closed negative at -2.33%, with trading volume remaining low at $1.35M compared to previous weeks. From a market structure perspective, the primary trend continues downward; RSI at 42.94 in the neutral-bearish zone, MACD confirming bearish momentum with a negative histogram. Price unable to hold above EMA20 ($1.07), giving short-term bearish signals. In the macro context, Bitcoin’s downtrend is creating pressure on altcoins, with structural supports ready to be tested for RAY. This week, in line with RAY Spot Analysis data, the risk/reward balance is becoming critical for position traders.

Trend Structure and Market Phases

Long-Term Trend Analysis

On the long-term chart, RAY’s primary trend is clearly downward; it’s moving within a descending channel from high levels ($2.00+). Weekly candles maintain the lower high/lower low structure, indicating the trend’s strength. The 200-week SMA ($1.45) above is still distant, and price approaching these levels seems unlikely for now. From a market cycle perspective, distribution phase characteristics dominate: low-volume consolidation after high-volume selling could signal preparation for a new downward wave. Trend filter gives bearish signal, and indicators like Supertrend also confirm the downtrend. For long-term portfolio managers, trend breakdown requires a close above $1.0742; otherwise, slippage toward $0.96 supports is expected.

Accumulation/Distribution Analysis

Market phase analysis shows distribution patterns dominating in recent months: price rejected from $1.22 resistance, then declined to the $1.00 band with low volume. Volume profile at $1.35M indicates low participation, signaling post-distribution consolidation phase. Accumulation signs require volume increase at $0.9630 support; in the current structure, distribution patterns (bearish engulfing candles) continue. From a Wyckoff methodology perspective, re-distribution phase is possible, as no retail holding is seen after institutional selling. RAY Futures Analysis data supports the bearish tilt of the long/short ratio. For accumulation, positive divergence is required at multi-TF support confluence.

Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Daily Chart View

On the daily timeframe, price is struggling with $1.0097 resistance (score: 62/100); this unbroken level confirms short-term bearish structure. 1D has 2 supports/2 resistances: $0.9630 (72/100) main support, $1.0742 (70/100) resistance. RSI at 42.94 near oversold but no divergence, MACD negative. Closes below EMA20 ($1.07) maintain the daily downtrend. Volume profile low, indicating lack of fuel for upside. Confluence: 1D supports align with weekly.

Weekly Chart View

Weekly view more bearish: Price below weekly EMA50 ($1.15), with 1W showing 1 support/3 resistance confluence. $0.8350 (66/100) deep support, $1.22 general resistance. Weekly candles indecisive with doji/small bodies, but overall channel downtrend intact. 8 strong levels (1D/3D/1W) confluence makes $0.9630 critical. Upside target $1.5290 (31/100) distant, downside $0.5295 (22/100) risky. In RAY and other analyses comparison, RAY weaker than BTC.

Critical Decision Points

Main support: $0.9630 (72/100) – Break targets $0.8350, then $0.5295. Main resistance: $1.0742 (70/100) – Above $1.22, failure returns to $0.99. $1.0097 intermediate level, failure to hold above current price bearish. Multi-TF confluence: 1D/1W support at $0.9630, break sell signal. Risk/reward: Upside to $1.5290 R/R 1:3.5, downside to $0.5295 1:2. Market structure remains bearish until break above $1.0742.

Weekly Strategy Recommendation

Bullish Case

Weekly close above $1.0742 triggers long position: Target $1.22 (first), $1.5290 (long-term). Stop-loss below $0.9630. Entry on $1.05 breakout, R/R 1:4. BTC above $89,698 supportive. Position with 2-3% risk, scale-in on accumulation phase confirmation.

Bearish Case

$0.9630 break triggers short: Target $0.8350, $0.5295. Stop above $1.0742. Entry on $0.99 breakdown, R/R 1:3. Sync with BTC below $88,400. Position size with 1-2% risk, expand on distribution confirmation.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $89,533 (-0.35%) in downtrend, Supertrend bearish – cautious for altcoins. RAY shows +0.75 correlation with BTC; BTC $88,400 support break pressures RAY to $0.96, above $89,698 provides relief. Monitor BTC resistance $91,193/BTC support $86,644; dominance rise could accelerate RAY distribution. Altcoin rally requires BTC $92,961 breakout.

Conclusion: Key Points for Next Week

Next week, $0.9630 hold opens rally, break opens downside; volume and BTC movement decisive. Watch $1.0742 breakout, bearish bias until trend intact. Position traders, stay in R/R-focused wait-and-see; technical confluence dominates without news flow.