Polymarket Odds Surge: 77% Chance of U.S. Government Shutdown Before January Ends

Budget gridlock is lifting shutdown odds while slowing progress on U.S. crypto and stablecoin legislation.

Polymarket traders are increasingly betting on another U.S. government shutdown before January ends. In the past day, odds climbed sharply as political tension in Washington rose. Ongoing budget disputes now threaten to slow progress on key crypto legislation moving through Congress.

Polymarket Traders Brace for Shutdown as Lawmakers Clash Over Funding

Shortly after new remarks from US Senator Chuck Schumer, betting activity picked up. The majority leader’s comments signaled resistance to the current funding plan. He said Senate Democrats would block an appropriations bill if funding for the Department of Homeland Security remains included.

Polymarket data shows a 77% chance of a U.S. government shutdown before January ends. The odds jumped 67% over the past 24 hours. Schumer’s comments signaled another stalemate as lawmakers struggle to reach a budget agreement.

Political commentator Collin Rugg pointed to the rise in odds in an X post. He stated that the surge came immediately after Schumer’s remarks. Market experts took the comments as a sign that talks may extend closer to key deadlines. As a result, expectations of a government shutdown have increased.

Meanwhile, ongoing political disputes also continue to slow progress on crypto policy. Lawmakers are yet to advance the CLARITY Act bill designed to set clearer rules for digital assets.

After the 43-day government shutdown in October and November last year, progress slowed. Budget fights now raise the risk of further delays.

Stablecoin Rewards Dispute Keeps U.S. Crypto Bill in Limbo

Galaxy Digital head of research Alex Thorn pointed to unclear rules around stablecoin yields. U.S. banking groups argue that yield-bearing stablecoins could weaken the traditional banking sector.

Thorn noted little evidence that could not move the bill forward. He added that the next four to six weeks before another markup attempt may give both sides time to close gaps.

According to Thorn, negotiations over stablecoin rewards stand out as a key hurdle. Progress on that front could improve the chances of bipartisan support during the next review.

At the same time, political tension in Washington is also increasing shutdown odds. President Donald Trump warned that another shutdown could be near, accusing Democrats of stalling budget efforts. Markets reacted with increased caution.

A shutdown would likely disrupt federal services and delay key policy decisions, including financial regulation. Notably, shutdowns have also led to market swings and slower lawmaking. Crypto firms seeking clear rules could even face prolonged uncertainty this year.

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