OSL Trading Hours: Bitcoin long-term holders' reduction slows down, bull market signals still exist

1. Market observation

Keywords: ETH, ETF, BTC

In the past week, the cryptocurrency industry has seen a number of important developments. MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings increased significantly by 51%, and unrealized gains exceeded the $14 billion mark. It is worth noting that crypto KOL Jeremie Davinci predicted that Bitcoin is expected to reach $350,000 based on historical trends and current mining cost analysis.

Meanwhile, BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, is expected to have differences with Trump, who may return to the White House, on crypto policy. Market research firm Glassnode said that Bitcoin prices are about 12% lower than their historical highs, and long-term holders (LTH) are still reducing their holdings, but the pace has slowed down. The 30-day supply change rate shows that the reduction may reach a cyclical peak. History shows that prices may continue to rise after the LTH reduction peak.

At the institutional level, some Meta shareholders have proposed to include Bitcoin in the company's reserves. Listed companies, led by MicroStrategy, continue to actively hoard Bitcoin, which is seen as a positive response to the successful launch of the US Bitcoin ETF. It is worth mentioning that with the rise of AI meme coins such as iDEGEN, some investors regard them as "Bitcoin alternatives." Mainstream investors and traders remain optimistic about the market outlook and believe that the activity of key addresses may push Bitcoin above $100,000.

This week, there was also a piece of regrettable news that a British man lost about 8,000 bitcoins because his girlfriend accidentally threw away a hard drive. However, there was good news from the regulatory level. North Dakota is considering using state funds to invest in bitcoin. Crypto expert Timothy Peterson made a bolder prediction that the price of bitcoin is expected to reach $1.5 million in 2035. However, the recent fluctuations in the price of bitcoin also remind investors to be wary of potential market risks.

2. Key data (as of 09:37 HKT on January 13)

• S&P 500: 5,827.04 (-0.93% year-to-date)

• Nasdaq: 19,161.63 (-0.77% year-to-date)

• 10-year Treasury yield: 4.769% (+19.30 basis points this year)

• US dollar index: 109.63 (+1.06% year-to-date)

• Bitcoin: $95,156 (+1.86% YTD), with daily spot volume of $19.37 billion

• Ethereum: $3,300.76 (-1.31% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $9.97 billion

3. ETF flows (January 10 EST)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$149.35 million

• Ethereum ETF: -$68.48 million

4. Important Dates (Hong Kong Time)

Non-farm payrolls data (January 10, 21:30)

• Actual: 256,000 / Previous: 227,000 / Expected: 150,000

Unemployment rate (January 10, 21:30)

• Actual: 4.1% / Previous: 4.2% / Expected: 4.2%

PPI month-on-month (January 14, 21:30)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 0.4% / Expected: 0.3%

Core inflation rate year-on-year (January 15, 21:30)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 4.2% / Expected: 4.2%

Year-on-year inflation rate (January 15, 21:30)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 2.7% / Expected: 2.8%

Retail sales year-on-year (January 16, 21:30)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 0.7% / Expected: 0.5%

5. Hot News

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26 of 31 publicly traded Bitcoin mining companies have seen their stock prices rise so far this year

Polymarket is defined as an illegal gambling website in Singapore and blocked

Aiccelerate DAO will increase token vesting in response to criticism of startup

USDC Treasury mints 250 million USDC on Solana chain

TON Ecosystem MEME Project DOGS Releases Development Roadmap for the First Half of 2025

Nasdaq-listed spirits company Heritage Distilling plans to build up Bitcoin reserves and accept it as payment

Dakota State proposes digital asset and precious metals reserves

An employee of the National Center for Public Policy Research submitted a shareholder proposal for Bitcoin reserves to Meta on behalf of his family

FDIC Vice Chairman Calls for More Open Attitude toward Crypto

New Hampshire introduces bill to create ‘strategic bitcoin reserve’

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