XRP ended the week with a modest 0.42% rise at the $1.61 level, but the main downtrend structure remains intact, and oversold momentum signals accumulation near critical supports. For portfolio managers, the main focus will be on holding at the $1.50 area and next week’s direction through BTC correlation.
XRP in the Weekly Market Summary
XRP was stuck in the weekly trading range of $1.53 – $1.66 and showed horizontal consolidation within the primary downtrend at $1.61. The volume profile remained at $2.65 billion, indicating limited participation. RSI at 29.04 is approaching the oversold zone, while the MACD negative histogram confirms bearish momentum. The market structure preserves the bearish filter as long as it stays below EMA20 ($1.83). In the bigger picture, XRP is being tested in the long-term downtrend channel, and a cautious stance prevails for altcoins amid macro uncertainties. For position traders this week, the integrity of the trend structure and accumulation signals should be prioritized. For detailed spot data, check the XRP detailed spot analysis page.
Trend Structure and Market Phases
Long-Term Trend Analysis
The long-term trend structure shows a clear downtrend character; the price has experienced a correction of nearly 60% from 2025 highs and approached the lower band of the main descending channel. On higher timeframes (3D/1W), the lower highs and lower lows formation remains intact, while the trendline at $1.92 serves as a strong filter. Market structure has exhibited bearish continuation patterns in recent weeks, but RSI divergences (29.04 level) may signal a potential trend inflection point. Remaining below EMA50 and EMA200 confirms the health of the downtrend. On a portfolio horizon, this structure resembles the final stages of the distribution phase, as institutional selling pressure appears to be easing.
Accumulation/Distribution Analysis
Market phase analysis shows accumulation phase characteristics in the $1.50 – $1.66 range: decreasing volume, price holding at strong supports, and oversold oscillators. According to Wyckoff methodology, this area may be in the secondary test (ST) phase, especially with the $1.5028 support (score 77/100) as a strong accumulation zone. Distribution patterns would activate on a breakout above $1.92, as high nodes in the volume profile concentrate at resistances. The current phase gives signals of a shift to accumulation where smart money is buying at low levels, but rising BTC dominance could delay this process. For futures market data, follow XRP futures market data.
Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Daily Chart View
On the daily timeframe (1D: 2S/3R), price held at $1.6068 support (score 63/100), but $1.6381 resistance (score 74/100) creates bearish confluence. The MACD histogram shows negative divergence, while RSI at 29 carries rebound potential from below. Short-term structure is bearish, but $1.5028 daily pivot confluence is a strong flip zone. Position traders should adjust their long/short biases based on daily closes.
Weekly Chart View
On the weekly chart (1W: 2S/3R), the downtrend channel lower band coincides with $1.5028, and this level is the confluence of multi-week lows. The upper band $1.9597 – $2.2411 resistance cluster (score 69/60) requires volume for breakout. Weekly RSI is stable in oversold, MACD crossover on hold. In the big picture, the weekly structure preserves the intact downtrend; monitor the $1.92 filter for accumulation breakout. Visit the XRP and other analyses section for all analyses.
Critical Decision Points
Main direction determinants: Supports – $1.5028 (critical, 77/100; breakdown to $1.0082 downside risk), $1.6068 (secondary hold). Resistances – $1.6381 (first test, 74/100), $1.9597 (trend filter), $2.2411 (long-term target). Inflection point on close above $1.6381 for bullish flip, below for distribution acceleration. 12 strong level confluences (1D/3D/1W), optimize R/R ratios at these points: Upside objective $2.1924 (score 15), downside $1.0082 (score 22).
Weekly Strategy Recommendation
In Bullish Case
Long positions active on sustained breakout above $1.6381: First target $1.9597, extension $2.1924 – $2.2411. Stop-loss below $1.5028, R/R 1:3+. For accumulation phase confirmation, wait for volume spike and RSI >40. Portfolio allocation 5-10%, confluent with BTC stabilization.
In Bearish Case
$1.5028 breakdown as short trigger: Target $1.0082, trail stop above $1.6068. Bearish continuation, aggressive if holding below EMA20. Risk 2-3%/position, monitor downtrend channel targets.
Bitcoin Correlation
XRP exhibits high correlation with BTC (%0.85+); BTC in downtrend at $78,659 with supertrend bearish signal raises caution flag for altcoins. If BTC supports $78,778 / $74,604 break, XRP acceleration risk below $1.50 increases; BTC recovery above resistances $79,346 / $83,548 supports XRP longs. Dominance increase could trigger XRP distribution; prioritize weekly BTC closes.
Conclusion: Key Points for Next Week
To watch next week: $1.5028 hold vs breakdown, $1.6381 test, BTC $78k band, and RSI divergence. Bearish bias unless trend structure breaks, selective long opportunities in accumulation confluence. Position traders should act with multi-TF confirmation; macro news flow (regulation etc.) could accelerate phase transition.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/xrp-technical-analysis-february-3-2026-weekly-strategy
