TLDR PayPal announces Q4 2025 earnings February 3 with consensus estimates of $1.29 per share on $8.77 billion revenue Branded checkout growth expected to decelerateTLDR PayPal announces Q4 2025 earnings February 3 with consensus estimates of $1.29 per share on $8.77 billion revenue Branded checkout growth expected to decelerate

PayPal (PYPL) Stock: Q4 Earnings Tuesday Face Pressure From Slowing Checkout Growth

4 min read

TLDR

  • PayPal announces Q4 2025 earnings February 3 with consensus estimates of $1.29 per share on $8.77 billion revenue
  • Branded checkout growth expected to decelerate to 2-3% in Q4 from 5% in Q3 due to competitive pressure
  • Stock down 22% over three months, trading at $52.69 near 52-week lows despite attractive 9.07X forward P/E valuation
  • AI commerce investments won’t deliver returns until 2027 while operating expenses rise at same pace as transaction margins
  • Analysts maintain neutral stance with 27 hold ratings versus 13 buys and 5 sells among 45 analysts covering the stock

PayPal reports fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 3 before the market opens. The digital payments company faces questions about its ability to compete in an increasingly crowded space.


PYPL Stock Card
PayPal Holdings, Inc., PYPL

Analysts expect earnings of $1.29 per share on revenue of $8.77 billion. That represents 4.8% revenue growth compared to the same quarter last year.

The stock has struggled recently. Shares fell 22% over the past three months while the S&P 500 gained 2.3%.

PayPal now trades at $52.69, barely above its 52-week low of $52.06. The stock carries a forward P/E ratio of 9.07 compared to the industry average of 19.14.

Core Business Loses Steam

The company’s branded checkout service is slowing down. This digital wallet lets customers pay across different merchant sites.

Growth in this segment is projected to hit just 2-3% in Q4. That’s a sharp drop from 5% growth in the previous quarter.

Apple Pay and Stripe continue grabbing market share. Softer e-commerce trends aren’t helping either.

CFO Jamie Miller previously warned that branded checkout would grow a couple of points lower in Q4. The numbers are bearing that out.

Total Payment Volume should reach $468.3 billion, up 7% year-over-year. Transaction revenues are expected at $7.93 billion, growing 4.5%.

Active accounts are projected to hit 440.3 million versus 434 million last year. But payment transactions may dip slightly to 6.607 billion from 6.619 billion.

Wall Street has responded with caution. Rothschild Redburn downgraded the stock to sell with a $50 target. Daiwa Securities cut to hold with a $61 target.

Among 45 analysts, only 13 rate PayPal a buy. Twenty-seven assign hold ratings and five recommend selling.

AI Investments Create Waiting Game

PayPal is betting big on AI-powered agentic commerce. These are shopping agents that assist with purchases.

The company is also upgrading checkout integrations with merchants. Progress has been slow though.

After 15 months, only 25% of merchants have adopted the new checkout experience. Just half of those use the most optimized version.

These investments won’t pay off until fiscal 2027 at the earliest. That creates a gap between spending today and returns tomorrow.

Transaction margin dollar growth tells the story. The metric is expected to slow to 4% in fiscal 2026 from 6% in fiscal 2025.

Operating expenses are rising at the same pace as transaction margins now. Historically, they grew at half that rate.

PayPal beat estimates last quarter with $1.34 per share versus $1.21 expected. Revenue hit $8.42 billion against $8.22 billion projected.

Despite the beat, shares dropped 19% after the report. Investors focused on forward guidance rather than past performance.

For full-year 2025, the company guided for earnings between $5.35 and $5.39 per share. That represents 15-16% growth.

The consensus estimate sits at $5.36 per share. Revenue is projected at $33.27 billion, up 4.6% year-over-year.

BTIG maintained a neutral rating ahead of earnings. The firm expects adjusted EPS growth to slow to 8% in fiscal 2026 from 15% in fiscal 2025.

PayPal has beaten consensus estimates in each of the past four quarters by an average of 10.3%. The company’s cheap valuation hasn’t attracted buyers yet as competitive pressures mount.

The post PayPal (PYPL) Stock: Q4 Earnings Tuesday Face Pressure From Slowing Checkout Growth appeared first on Blockonomi.

Disclaimer: The articles reposted on this site are sourced from public platforms and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not necessarily reflect the views of MEXC. All rights remain with the original authors. If you believe any content infringes on third-party rights, please contact service@support.mexc.com for removal. MEXC makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the content and is not responsible for any actions taken based on the information provided. The content does not constitute financial, legal, or other professional advice, nor should it be considered a recommendation or endorsement by MEXC.
Tags:

You May Also Like

Coinbase CEO advocates for crypto legislation reform in Washington DC

Coinbase CEO advocates for crypto legislation reform in Washington DC

The post Coinbase CEO advocates for crypto legislation reform in Washington DC appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key Takeaways Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong is actively working in Washington, D.C. to promote new crypto market structure legislation. Armstrong is aiming to prevent future SEC leadership similar to former chair Gary Gensler. Coinbase Chief Executive Officer Brian Armstrong said he is working in Washington to advance crypto market structure legislation and prevent another Securities and Exchange Commission chair like Gary Gensler from taking office. The Coinbase CEO said he is focused on getting crypto market structure legislation passed. Coinbase, the largest U.S. crypto exchange, has been among the companies navigating the regulatory landscape as lawmakers and agencies work to establish clearer rules for digital assets. Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/coinbase-ceo-crypto-legislation-washington-dc/
Share
BitcoinEthereumNews2025/09/18 09:43
Forex Expo 2025 Redefines the Trading Landscape

Forex Expo 2025 Redefines the Trading Landscape

The post Forex Expo 2025 Redefines the Trading Landscape appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Dubai, United Arab Emirates, October 1st, 2025, FinanceWire The Middle East’s largest forex and fintech event convenes the world’s most influential voices in trading, fintech, and digital assets.  With the countdown on, Forex Expo Dubai 2025 will open its doors next week on 6–7 October at Dubai World Trade Centre. The two-day event promises to be the Middle East’s largest and most dynamic gathering for the forex, fintech, and online trading community, bringing together more than 30,000 attendees, 250+ exhibitors, and 150+ global speakers.  A Benchmark for the Industry  Over the years, Forex Expo Dubai has evolved into more than a marketplace — it has become a benchmark for excellence in trading, investment, and fintech. By bringing together brokers, investors, affiliates, IBs, fintech pioneers, and payment solution providers from 60+ countries, the Expo offers an unmatched platform for knowledge exchange, deal-making, and shaping the future of trading.  Global Exhibitors & Cutting-Edge Solutions  At the heart of Forex Expo Dubai 2025 is its exhibition floor, showcasing 250+ international forex, fintech, and investment brands. Attendees will gain access to the latest technologies and solutions spanning the entire trading spectrum, including: Forex, stocks, ETFs, indices, and commodities Advanced liquidity aggregation tools for seamless execution Multi-asset trading platforms built for speed and efficiency RegTech and compliance systems to meet evolving regulations AI-based investing platforms and analytics for smarter decision-making Digital asset innovations bridging traditional finance. Confirmed exhibitors include ADSS, Alpari, CFI Financial Group, CXM, Eightcap, Equiti, Exness, FP Markets, IC Markets, Ingot, JustMarkets, Landmark Markets, Traze, VT Markets, Valetax, Vantage, xChief, XM, amongst many more. Dedicated B2B Zone & GCC Majlis The B2B Zone will once again serve as a dedicated area designed for companies catering to institutional clients, brokers, fintech partners, and solution providers. It will host: Regulatory service providers Technology providers Payment…
Share
BitcoinEthereumNews2025/10/01 22:46
Pi Network and Picoin Signal Long-Term Commitment to the Next Generation of Web3 Finance

Pi Network and Picoin Signal Long-Term Commitment to the Next Generation of Web3 Finance

As the crypto industry matures, a growing divide is emerging between projects built for short-term speculation and those designed with long-term generational i
Share
Hokanews2026/02/04 12:05