Bitcoin continued its decline on August 22, slipping 0.65% on the day to $112,691, extending a nearly 6% monthly loss. The drop leaves the asset 9.45% below the August 14 high of $124,457, with cooling retail demand driving weaker trading activity.
Spot market turnover fell sharply, with daily volume dropping 10.05% to $58.73 billion. Futures markets also showed declining participation, as volumes slid 9.84% to $69.91 billion, even though open interest edged up 0.92% to $81.19 billion. This mix suggests traders are holding positions rather than closing them, reflecting caution in the current environment.
CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn pointed out that retail demand decreased by 5.7% during the past week. He explained smaller players as “tourists” who immediately exit during turbulent times. He also cautions that continued retests of the area around $112,000 may break that support and pave the way for further losses.
As smaller buyers sell, larger investors seem to be taking advantage of decreased prices. On August 22, CryptoQuant contributor Caueconomy pointed out that whales purchased just over 16,000 BTC during the last week. The same trend earlier this past month was followed by a rebound, sparking hope of a repeat short-term bounce.
Source: CryptoQuant
Short-term buyers are also under pressure now. Glassnode data from August 21 reveals that those who came in between $113,000 and $120,000 are at small losses, and their Spent Output Profit Ratio falls between 0.96 and 1.01. Local bottoms in prior cycles tended to develop when this metric dipped closer to the 0.9 value.
The market indicators are providing mixed signals. Bitcoin is challenging the low end of its Bollinger Bands, commonly associated with an oversold position but also greater volatility. The Relative Strength Index stands at 41 and continues lower.
The MACD indicates bearish crossover, while the shorter-term averages of 10 to 50 days maintain pressure to the downside intact.
Source: TradingView
Longer averages are supportive. The 200-day and 100-day levels are still signaling higher, and the larger trend appears intact despite the temporary weakness. Oscillators like the stochastic RSI and Williams percentage rate suggest the potential of a small bounce attempt.
If interest in whales continues and $112,000 holds, Bitcoin can aim to bounce towards $118,000. If this region fails, the next area of support is around $105,000 to $108,000.
Aside from technical levels, the market is waiting to see the outcome of the September 17 Federal Reserve meeting. Market pricing indicates an 81% probability of a rate cut of 0.25%. Such actions usually boost risk assets’ appetite, which can give Bitcoin a possible bounce if monetary easing occurs.
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