PENDLE, with RSI at 34.62 approaching the oversold region, the positive MACD histogram gives a hidden recovery signal in momentum. Although the short-term downtrend dominates, the decrease in volume and trading below EMAs increases rebound potential.
Trend Status and Momentum Analysis
PENDLE is currently trading at the $1.19 level and has fallen 1.57% in the last 24 hours, with the daily range remaining between $1.18-$1.28. The overall trend direction is bearish, with the price trading below EMA20 ($1.34), confirming short-term bearish momentum. The Supertrend indicator is also giving a bearish signal and pointing to $1.55 resistance. However, momentum oscillators show mixed signals: RSI is near oversold, while the MACD histogram remains in the positive zone. This indicates that momentum is weakening within the downtrend and a corrective rally may be on the horizon. Volume is at $23.72 million, which is low compared to recent periods and does not support the decline; on the contrary, it may point to accumulation patterns. There are 6 strong level confluences in multiple time frames (MTF): 2 supports/1 resistance on 1D, 1 support on 3D, 1 support/2 resistances on 1W. These confluences strengthen the $1.0860 and $1.1800 supports while making $1.2183 resistance critical.
RSI Indicator: Buy or Sell?
RSI Divergence Analysis
RSI(14) is currently at 34.62, just above 30, meaning it’s quite close to the oversold region. This level points to a hidden bullish divergence, as RSI is making relatively higher lows despite the price making further declines at recent lows ($1.18). There is no regular bearish divergence; while the price is making new lows, RSI has not dipped below 30, indicating weakening seller momentum. On the daily chart, over the last 5 candles, RSI has declined less compared to the price drop below, providing a strong signal that momentum is exhausting. Weekly RSI remains neutral around 45, while 3-day RSI has dropped to 38; confluences are setting the stage for an oversold bounce. If RSI does not drop below 30 and turns up, it could trigger strong buying momentum targeting the 50 level.
Overbought/Oversold Regions
Although the oversold region (below 30) has not been fully triggered yet, the 34.62 level has historically led to quick recoveries in PENDLE. In a similar situation in April 2025, RSI jumped from 35 to 65, and the price rose 40%. The current position indicates weakening selling pressure and potential buyer entry. There is no overbought above 70, meaning upside potential is open.
MACD Signals and Histogram Dynamics
MACD is bullish and the histogram is expanding with positive values; in the last candle, the histogram bar rose from 0.012 to 0.018, showing momentum strengthening despite the downtrend. The signal line crossover has occurred bullishly, and the MACD line remains above the signal. In terms of divergence, while the price made lows, the MACD histogram stayed positive – this is a classic bullish divergence. On the daily chart, the histogram expanding above the zero line confirms short-term momentum shift. However, the 1W MACD still shows a negative histogram, meaning the long-term trend is bearish. Is it supported by volume? Yes, MACD positivity after low-volume decline points to accumulation rather than distribution. What to watch: If the histogram narrows, momentum loss; if it expands, bullish continuation.
EMA Systems and Trend Strength
Short-Term EMAs
Price is below EMA20 ($1.34) and facing EMA9 ($1.25) resistance; this ribbon shows a bearish stack in the short term. The distance between EMA9-EMA20 has widened, confirming downtrend strength, but the ribbon is starting to compress as price approaches $1.18 support. Short-term momentum is weak, but approaching EMA50 ($1.42) offers upside test opportunity.
Medium/Long-Term EMA Supports
We are not above EMA50 ($1.42) and EMA200 ($1.65), so the medium-term trend is bearish. Ribbon dynamics: Long-term EMAs are downward sloping and spaced apart, showing a strong downtrend. However, price may find support around EMA100 ($1.28). In trend strength measurement, EMA ribbon width is 8%, which is extremely bearish; narrowing would signal reversal. Check detailed data in PENDLE Spot Analysis and PENDLE Futures Analysis.
Bitcoin Correlation
Bitcoin is at $66,795 with a 0.57% decline in downtrend; Supertrend bearish and supports at 65,143-62,910-60,000. Rising BTC dominance is pressuring altcoins, with PENDLE having 0.85 correlation to BTC. If BTC cannot break $66,959 resistance, PENDLE will be rejected at $1.2183; if BTC breaks below $65,143, PENDLE’s test of $1.0860 accelerates. If BTC recovers (target $70,639), PENDLE momentum carries to $1.76. BTC dominance decline is required for altcoin season.
Momentum Outcome and Expectations
Momentum confluences are mixed: RSI oversold approach and positive MACD histogram give bullish signals, while EMA bearish and Supertrend holds downtrend. Volume decline weakens sells, MTF support confluences ($1.0860 score 72/100) strong. Bearish target $0.5246 (score 22), bullish $1.7604 (28). Short-term $1.1800-$1.2183 range critical; if RSI rises to 50, EMA20 test; if below, deep decline. Momentum exhaustion near, monitor confluences. Lack of news leaves volatility to technicals.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/pendle-technical-analysis-19-february-2026-rsi-macd-momentum
