Polkadot (DOT), leaning on the strong support at the 1.31 dollar level, is at a critical turning point in the short-term downtrend; although bull signals emerging in MACD suggest a possible recovery, Bitcoin’s dominant decline is pressuring altcoins.
Market Outlook and Current Situation
Polkadot (DOT) declined to the 1.31 dollar level with a 3.80% drop in the last 24 hours, completing its daily range in the 1.31-1.37 dollar band. While volume hovered around 77.41 million dollars, DOT’s short-term outlook paints a pessimistic picture under general market downtrend pressure. In an environment where Bitcoin is struggling to hold at the 67,589 dollar level with a 1.14% decline, the selling wave across altcoins has also impacted DOT. The price remaining below EMA20 (1.40 dollars) is reinforced by the Supertrend indicator’s bearish signal, requiring investors to remain cautious.
Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis detects a total of 10 strong levels on 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 1 support/1 resistance on 1D, 2 support/2 resistance on 3D, and 1 support/3 resistance confluence on 1W. This confluence points to a delicate balance in the price’s current position, while the declining volume requires additional confirmation for a trend reversal. Although DOT’s ecosystem developments are absent from the news flow, it appears squeezed under the macro pressures of the overall crypto market. Investors should review their positions by tracking detailed data on DOT spot analysis platforms.
The downtrend on daily charts reflects the high volatility observed in recent weeks. The price’s hold around 1.31 dollars indicates short-term buyers stepping in, but overall momentum remains weak. Market participants are noting DOT’s relatively weak performance while awaiting a potential Bitcoin recovery.
Technical Analysis: Levels to Watch
Support Zones
The most critical support level at 1.3117 dollars (score: 70/100) stands out; this level overlaps with the daily chart’s pivot point confluence and Fibonacci retracement 61.8%. If this zone breaks, the next support cluster could shift to the 1.25-1.28 dollar band, as additional confluence exists in the 3D timeframe. Historical data shows DOT has reacted to this support twice before, with recoveries observed. However, if volume support weakens, the bearish scenario could accelerate, potentially leading to a test of 1.10 dollars.
Resistance Barriers
The first resistance is positioned at 1.3505 dollars (score: 62/100); this barrier, strengthened by EMA20 and daily pivot resistance, is limiting upward price movement. Above it, 1.40 dollar EMA21 and Supertrend resistance at 1.62 dollars will be monitored. This region, where three resistance confluences cluster on the 1W chart, will require a strong breakout. In the short term, closes above 1.35 dollars could provide initial confirmation of a momentum shift, but this probability is low under the current downtrend.
Momentum Indicators and Trend Strength
RSI (14) at 38.57 is hovering in the neutral-bearish zone, with the value approaching oversold carrying recovery potential but no divergence. MACD shows a positive histogram forming a bull signal; a signal line crossover could push the price higher in the near term. These conflicting signals reflect market indecision – despite the bearish Supertrend, MACD’s strength may offer short-term trading opportunities.
EMAs are bearishly aligned: price below EMA20 (1.40), with EMA50 (around 1.55) and EMA200 (1.75) higher up. Trend strength, as measured by the ADX indicator, is at a medium level (around 25), signaling the downtrend is beginning to weaken. In MTF, although 1W Supertrend is bearish, neutralizing momentum on 3D increases the likelihood of sideways consolidation. According to the volume profile, buyers are concentrating toward support, which could lead to a potential V-reversal.
Risk Assessment and Trading Outlook
The risk/reward ratio is unbalanced from current levels, based on bullish target 1.8069 (score 30/100, 37% upside) and bearish target 0.5983 (score 22/100, 54% downside); the overall outlook is range-bound with a bearish bias. In breakout scenarios, loss of support could trigger aggressive selling toward 1.10 dollars, while breaking resistance could lead to 1.62. Volatility is high (ATR 5%+), so stop-losses should be placed 2-3% below support. Caution is advised for leveraged positions in DOT futures, as BTC correlation heightens risk.
The overall outlook is bearish-neutral in the short term; if support holds, 1.35 could be tested, but a breakdown would expect a deep correction. Long-term investors should monitor 1W confluences, while short-term traders await momentum confirmation. Large moves will remain limited without an increase in market volume.
Bitcoin Correlation
DOT exhibits high correlation with BTC (0.85%+), directly impacted by Bitcoin’s downtrend; as BTC tests support at 67,589 dollars (67,535 critical), pressure on altcoins intensifies. BTC supports at 67,535, 64,427, and 62,910 dollars; breaking these could drag DOT to the 1.20s. Resistances at 68,071, 70,648, and 74,487 dollars – BTC’s bearish Supertrend signal is a red flag for altcoins. If BTC recovers, DOT would follow with 1.5-2x beta, but selling pressure dominates the current trend. DOT investors should prioritize BTC levels.
This analysis utilizes Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/dot-technical-analysis-february-22-2026-critical-support-test-and-market-commentary
