USDT’s 60-day market cap change has fallen below -$3 billion, a threshold reached only once before, during late 2022 when Bitcoin based near $16,000. The secondUSDT’s 60-day market cap change has fallen below -$3 billion, a threshold reached only once before, during late 2022 when Bitcoin based near $16,000. The second

USDT 60-Day Contraction Drops Below -$3B as Bitcoin Trades $65K–$70K

2026/02/23 11:14
3 min read

USDT’s 60-day market cap change has fallen below -$3 billion, a threshold reached only once before, during late 2022 when Bitcoin based near $16,000.

The second occurrence is unfolding now, in early 2026, with BTC trading in the $65,000–$70,000 range following its prior all-time high expansion.

The magnitude of the contraction places stablecoin liquidity at the center of current market structure. This is not a routine fluctuation. It reflects sustained capital withdrawal from the crypto ecosystem over a compressed period.

Rare Liquidity Signal Reappears

Stablecoins function as deployable liquidity across the digital asset market. When supply expands, it typically signals fresh capital entering exchanges and on-chain venues. When supply contracts aggressively, it implies redemptions, deleveraging, or capital exiting the ecosystem.

The 60-day USDT contraction below -$3 billion has occurred on only two occasions:

  • Late 2022: Bitcoin traded near $16,000, marking a cycle low amid peak capitulation.
  • Early 2026: Bitcoin trades between $65,000 and $70,000 after a prior all-time high phase.

The structural difference in price level makes the comparison more complex. In 2022, the contraction aligned with systemic stress and forced selling. Today, the contraction is occurring from significantly higher valuation levels, suggesting liquidity tightening rather than full-cycle collapse.

Daily Outflows Add to the Stress Signal

On a daily basis, USDT has printed three separate single-day outflows exceeding -$1 billion. Historically, episodes of this scale have aligned with either macro bottoms or volatility clusters in Bitcoin.

Large-scale redemptions typically reflect institutional or large-holder activity rather than retail flows. When redemptions accelerate at this magnitude, they often coincide with exhaustion phases, periods where forced positioning unwinds rather than the early stages of sustained structural downtrends.

That distinction matters. Liquidity exits can precede either stabilization or further downside depending on whether the contraction persists.

Bitcoin’s Liquidity Sensitivity

Bitcoin remains deeply reflexive to liquidity conditions. When stablecoin supply compresses, the available on-exchange buying power shrinks. That creates a more fragile environment, especially during periods of heightened volatility.

The current 60-day contraction suggests structural tightening in crypto-native liquidity. If redemptions continue at this pace, downside pressure could extend as market depth thins and risk appetite remains subdued.

However, historical precedent shows that once forced deleveraging phases complete and stablecoin flows stabilize, Bitcoin has often transitioned into strong medium-term recoveries as liquidity normalizes.

Smart Money Buys the Dip as 1,000+ BTC Whales Accumulate

Stabilization Is the Inflection Variable

The key variable is not the depth of contraction alone, but whether flows begin to flatten.

If USDT supply continues to decline, structural pressure may persist. If the contraction slows or reverses, the risk-reward profile shifts rapidly, as even modest liquidity expansion can have an outsized effect in a reflexive market.

Extreme liquidity stress has historically marked opportunity, but only after selling exhaustion is confirmed. For now, Bitcoin trades in a tightening liquidity regime, and stabilization in USDT flows remains the condition that could redefine the next structural phase.

The post USDT 60-Day Contraction Drops Below -$3B as Bitcoin Trades $65K–$70K appeared first on ETHNews.

Market Opportunity
Bitcoin Logo
Bitcoin Price(BTC)
$65,747.91
$65,747.91$65,747.91
-2.86%
USD
Bitcoin (BTC) Live Price Chart
Disclaimer: The articles reposted on this site are sourced from public platforms and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not necessarily reflect the views of MEXC. All rights remain with the original authors. If you believe any content infringes on third-party rights, please contact service@support.mexc.com for removal. MEXC makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the content and is not responsible for any actions taken based on the information provided. The content does not constitute financial, legal, or other professional advice, nor should it be considered a recommendation or endorsement by MEXC.

You May Also Like

Crucial Fed Rate Cut: October Probability Surges to 94%

Crucial Fed Rate Cut: October Probability Surges to 94%

BitcoinWorld Crucial Fed Rate Cut: October Probability Surges to 94% The financial world is buzzing with a significant development: the probability of a Fed rate cut in October has just seen a dramatic increase. This isn’t just a minor shift; it’s a monumental change that could ripple through global markets, including the dynamic cryptocurrency space. For anyone tracking economic indicators and their impact on investments, this update from the U.S. interest rate futures market is absolutely crucial. What Just Happened? Unpacking the FOMC Statement’s Impact Following the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, market sentiment has decisively shifted. Before the announcement, the U.S. interest rate futures market had priced in a 71.6% chance of an October rate cut. However, after the statement, this figure surged to an astounding 94%. This jump indicates that traders and analysts are now overwhelmingly confident that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates next month. Such a high probability suggests a strong consensus emerging from the Fed’s latest communications and economic outlook. A Fed rate cut typically means cheaper borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, which can stimulate economic activity. But what does this really signify for investors, especially those in the digital asset realm? Why is a Fed Rate Cut So Significant for Markets? When the Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates, it sends powerful signals across the entire financial ecosystem. A rate cut generally implies a more accommodative monetary policy, often enacted to boost economic growth or combat deflationary pressures. Impact on Traditional Markets: Stocks: Lower interest rates can make borrowing cheaper for companies, potentially boosting earnings and making stocks more attractive compared to bonds. Bonds: Existing bonds with higher yields might become more valuable, but new bonds will likely offer lower returns. Dollar Strength: A rate cut can weaken the U.S. dollar, making exports cheaper and potentially benefiting multinational corporations. Potential for Cryptocurrency Markets: The cryptocurrency market, while often seen as uncorrelated, can still react significantly to macro-economic shifts. A Fed rate cut could be interpreted as: Increased Risk Appetite: With traditional investments offering lower returns, investors might seek higher-yielding or more volatile assets like cryptocurrencies. Inflation Hedge Narrative: If rate cuts are perceived as a precursor to inflation, assets like Bitcoin, often dubbed “digital gold,” could gain traction as an inflation hedge. Liquidity Influx: A more accommodative monetary environment generally means more liquidity in the financial system, some of which could flow into digital assets. Looking Ahead: What Could This Mean for Your Portfolio? While the 94% probability for a Fed rate cut in October is compelling, it’s essential to consider the nuances. Market probabilities can shift, and the Fed’s ultimate decision will depend on incoming economic data. Actionable Insights: Stay Informed: Continue to monitor economic reports, inflation data, and future Fed statements. Diversify: A diversified portfolio can help mitigate risks associated with sudden market shifts. Assess Risk Tolerance: Understand how a potential rate cut might affect your specific investments and adjust your strategy accordingly. This increased likelihood of a Fed rate cut presents both opportunities and challenges. It underscores the interconnectedness of traditional finance and the emerging digital asset space. Investors should remain vigilant and prepared for potential volatility. The financial landscape is always evolving, and the significant surge in the probability of an October Fed rate cut is a clear signal of impending change. From stimulating economic growth to potentially fueling interest in digital assets, the implications are vast. Staying informed and strategically positioned will be key as we approach this crucial decision point. The market is now almost certain of a rate cut, and understanding its potential ripple effects is paramount for every investor. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Q1: What is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)? A1: The FOMC is the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve System. It sets the federal funds rate, which influences other interest rates and economic conditions. Q2: How does a Fed rate cut impact the U.S. dollar? A2: A rate cut typically makes the U.S. dollar less attractive to foreign investors seeking higher returns, potentially leading to a weakening of the dollar against other currencies. Q3: Why might a Fed rate cut be good for cryptocurrency? A3: Lower interest rates can reduce the appeal of traditional investments, encouraging investors to seek higher returns in alternative assets like cryptocurrencies. It can also be seen as a sign of increased liquidity or potential inflation, benefiting assets like Bitcoin. Q4: Is a 94% probability a guarantee of a rate cut? A4: While a 94% probability is very high, it is not a guarantee. Market probabilities reflect current sentiment and data, but the Federal Reserve’s final decision will depend on all available economic information leading up to their meeting. Q5: What should investors do in response to this news? A5: Investors should stay informed about economic developments, review their portfolio diversification, and assess their risk tolerance. Consider how potential changes in interest rates might affect different asset classes and adjust strategies as needed. Did you find this analysis helpful? Share this article with your network to keep others informed about the potential impact of the upcoming Fed rate cut and its implications for the financial markets! To learn more about the latest crypto market trends, explore our article on key developments shaping Bitcoin price action. This post Crucial Fed Rate Cut: October Probability Surges to 94% first appeared on BitcoinWorld.
Share
Coinstats2025/09/18 02:25
Vitalik Buterin Selling Ethereum 'Faster,' Says On-Chain Tracking Firm As Second-Largest Crypto Plunges Over 5%

Vitalik Buterin Selling Ethereum 'Faster,' Says On-Chain Tracking Firm As Second-Largest Crypto Plunges Over 5%

Vitalik Buterin offloaded millions worth of Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) over the past couple of days, coinciding with a significant drop in the cryptocurrency’s priceread
Share
Coinstats2026/02/23 12:46
VeChain (VET) Daily Market Analysis 23 February 2026

VeChain (VET) Daily Market Analysis 23 February 2026

VeChain faces price pressure despite major ecosystem upgrades – here's the latest: • VET price down 10.80% over 7 days, underperforming global crypto market (16
Share
Coinstats2026/02/23 12:47