Trading Moment: Crypto Regulators Receive Major Boost; Bitcoin May Experience Initial Sell-Off Followed by a Rebound After Interest Rate Meeting

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macro Market

On the 19th day of the US-Israeli strikes against Iran, Trump declared that Iran's military capabilities had been "completely destroyed" without the need for assistance from NATO allies. Iran , in response, announced the 61st wave of Operation Real Commitment-4 in retaliation for the assassination of Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme Security Council. Analysts believe that Larijani's death will have a far greater impact on the Iranian regime than Khamenei's.

U.S. stocks continued their rebound on Tuesday, with the three major indexes rising slightly. However, the sell-off triggered by the Iran war is far from over. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett warned that the Middle East conflict and private lending concerns have shattered the "bubble bull market," but the current sentiment indicator of 5.6 and the sell signal of 8.5 suggest that the market has not yet reached historically extreme pessimism.

Ahead of the FOMC meeting early Thursday morning, CME Group data showed the market expected a nearly 99% probability of maintaining interest rates at 3.5%-3.75%, with a 97% probability of no change next month . KPMG Chief Economist Diane Swonk warned that the Fed's "dual mandate" has become "fighting each other," with the risk of deeply entrenched inflation increasing daily. JPMorgan Chase 's David Kelly believes Powell will emphasize the high degree of uncertainty brought about by the Middle East conflict, but core economic forecasts will not change significantly. Former Fed Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson bluntly stated that the Fed has deviated too far from its 2% inflation target, and runaway prices are the biggest threat.

Furthermore, US national debt has surged to a record $38.86 trillion, with interest payments consuming 17% of government revenue. Larry McDonald, founder of the "Hedge Fund Trap Report," bluntly stated that high energy costs and weak employment are forcing the Federal Reserve into a "nightmare dilemma," and gold's struggle around the $5,000 mark reflects the depletion of the paper credit system . Daniel Pavilonis of RJO Futures further warned that if the 10-year US Treasury yield continues to climb, gold and silver will face a deep correction, with gold prices even risking a plunge to $4,200.

Bitcoin price

Bitcoin is currently fluctuating wildly between $74,000 and $76,000, with options market pricing indicating a surge in short-term volatility expectations. Although the price briefly touched a six-week high of $76,000, heavy selling pressure caused a pullback. This rebound has been overly driven by leverage in the derivatives market, with some established players taking the opportunity to unload their holdings. On-chain data shows that spot ETF inflows have turned positive, with over 26,636 BTC added in the past month, and the average cost basis for buyers approaching $79,900.

The market remains cautious ahead of Thursday's Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. While maintaining interest rates is widely expected, seven out of eight FOMC meetings in 2025 have triggered BTC declines, leading to a pessimistic market sentiment. It's worth noting that although the FOMC meeting is generally bearish in the short term, BTC typically stabilizes within 48-72 hours. Analysts generally believe that if Bitcoin buying fails to sustain, it may retrace to the $68,000 support level or even lower, with the $70,000 to $71,000 area considered the last line of defense for the bulls. As long as the price can stabilize above the upper end of this range, this rebound is expected to continue, with most analysts believing it could rise to at least $80,000.

Bearish view

The core logic of this camp is that the expectation of tightening macro liquidity, the lack of spot buying, and the structural fragility of the contract market are shaping the recent rebound into a dangerous "bull market trap".

• Mayne: The recent rebound will eventually lead to lower lows, and once the price falls back into the trading range, long positions should be reduced decisively.

• LP: There is continuous selling pressure in the 74K-75K range. If buying cannot keep up, the price will fall to 72K, or even fill the CME gap at 71.3K.

• Ardi: 70K-71K is the last line of defense for the bulls. A break below this level means that both the medium-term trend line and horizontal support have been breached, and the uptrend has completely dried up.

• Killa: Since May 2025, BTC has fallen after every FOMC meeting (6 meetings, 6 falls), and it has only experienced 112 days of bear market so far. Blindly buying the dip goes against the cyclical pattern.

• Ted: The liquidity above has been cleared out, and the next step will be to hunt down the long positions below $70,000, but before that, there may be a false breakout above $76,000 to lure in more buyers.

• Technical Crypto Analyst: Prices encountered resistance in the 74K-79K resistance zone of the ascending channel, which could trigger a deep pullback towards the 68K support level.

• Roman: There are no signs of a bear market bottom on a larger timeframe, and there is a lack of bullish divergence and volume at the bottom.

• Jelle: The real bear market bottom is far below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, and the market still needs to go through a long period of boring fluctuations.

• CryptoQuant analyst: The market is shifting from spot-driven to overheated derivatives-driven, with established players distributing their holdings. The divergence in contract positions suggests this could be a bull trap.

bullish view

The core logic of this camp is that the upward breakthrough of key resistance in terms of technicals, the continuous inflow of ETF funds, and the supply compression effect after the halving will provide sufficient fuel for Bitcoin to hit a new all-time high.

• Adam: As long as Powell releases a dovish signal that "inflation is under control," the improvement in liquidity expectations will directly help BTC hit the $80,000 mark.

• Mayne: As long as the price can stabilize above the high of the range, this rebound is expected to continue, with the upside target pointing to 80K or even 86K-90K.

• Altcoin Sherpa: If it can break through and hold the high of the range, the next wave of upward movement will target 85K-95K, and the 85K area is also where the 200-day EMA is located.

• that1618guy: The model shows that the probability of reaching 80K in the next 14 days (35.8%) is much higher than the probability of reaching 67.5K in the next 14 days (21.7%), indicating a positive skewness in the market.

• Crypto Tony: The bears failed to maintain their offensive during the decline, and the bulls remain in control. After breaking through the previous high, $80,000 is within reach.

• IncomeSharks: If the pullback is shallow, it is entirely possible to reach 80K before the end of the month; the RJALPHA model issued a rare quadruple buy signal at 66K, with a target of 92K.

• Man of Bitcoin: The weekly stochastic RSI breaking above 20 is a bullish signal. If it breaks through the downtrend line, it will retest the 50-day moving average. The price consolidating below the resistance level suggests that the uptrend will continue. Holding above $70,260 is key.

• Ali Charts: Bitcoin is breaking upwards. If it can close above $73,344 on the daily chart, it will open up room for movement towards $79,234 and $85,555.

Market Dynamics

The regulatory fog surrounding the crypto market is being forcefully dispelled, with the latest guidance from the SEC and CFTC categorizing crypto assets into five major categories . This not only liberates Bitcoin and Ethereum but also officially designates a host of altcoins such as SOL, XRP, and DOGE as "digital goods," while clearly defining compliance boundaries for NFTs, airdrops, and cross-chain assets.

Solana is at a crossroads, poised for a breakout. On the weekly chart, SOL has once again displayed the "long lower shadow" bottoming signal that accurately predicted the 1604% and 142% surges. Analysts WebTrend and Blunz point out that SOL has completed its accumulation phase and broken out of the ascending triangle. As long as it holds the $93.50 support level, the next target will be $120 or even $145.

Key data (as of 13:00 HKT on March 18)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$199 million, marking the 7th consecutive day of net inflows.

• Ethereum ETF: +$138 million, marking the sixth consecutive day of net inflows.

• XRP ETF: +$4.6369 million

  SOL ETF: +$17.8107 million

• Fear of Greed Index: 26 (Fear)

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, BTC, POLYX, ETH, BTT

• Sector Performance: The crypto market generally saw a correction, with only the SocialFi sector remaining relatively resilient.

24-hour liquidation A total of 61,709 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $131 million, including $52.65 million in BTC liquidations, $24.12 million in ETH liquidations, and $3.07 million in SOL liquidations.

Today's Outlook

• Binance HODLer airdrop launches Fabric Protocol (ROBO), the 62nd project.

• Binance: Katana (KAT) tokens will begin circulating on March 18th at 19:00.

• Noble will migrate from the Cosmos chain to an independent EVM L1, with the mainnet scheduled to launch on March 18th.

• Lombard (BARD) will unlock approximately 30 million tokens, worth about $32.3 million, on March 18.

• US Federal Reserve FOMC Interest Rate Decision (Lower Bound): Previous Value 3.5%, Forecast Value 3.5% (March 19, 2:00 AM)

• US Federal Reserve FOMC Interest Rate Decision (Upper Limit): Previous value 3.75%, Forecast value 3.75% (March 19, 2:00 AM)

• Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell holds a monetary policy press conference (March 19, 2:30 AM).

• Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision (March 19)

• Bank of England policy rate (March 19)

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: Siren up 12%, MemeCore up 7.9%, Kaspa up 5.7%, LayerZero up 5.2%, and Jupiter up 3.3%.

Hot News

• Analysis: Last week, Strategy Group increased its Bitcoin holdings for the first time, primarily using preferred stock as its financing tool.

• A wallet suspected to belong to Cumberland withdrew 543.5 BTC, worth approximately $40.58 million, from a CEX six hours ago.

• Five new addresses withdrew 29,598 ETH from Coinbase eight hours ago, worth $68.94 million.

• Hyperliquid HIP-3 market open interest reached a record high of $1.43 billion in a single day.

• The US SEC and CFTC have released new cryptocurrency guidelines, clarifying that most digital assets are not classified as securities.

• Iran has designated several replacements for key state positions after the death of the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council was confirmed.

• DAO governance platform Tally will shut down operations, citing relaxed regulations that have weakened the demand for decentralization.

• Sharplink: Last week's staking reward was 493 ETH, bringing the cumulative staking reward to 15,464 ETH.