CERAWeek mood turns against Iran conflict

Sentiment has turned sharply against the war with Iran among the US energy and business leaders attending the CERAWeek conference, with many warning of severe consequences for the global economy and oil markets.

After two days of discussions in Houston Texas, support for the conflict appears largely confined to the US administration and its political base. Industry figures point to rising volatility and the risk of demand destruction amid oil price surges and disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz.  

Richard Haass, a former US diplomat, told a conference session the conflict risked following the logic of the Vietnam war.

“When the US doesn’t win, it loses. When the Iranians don’t lose, they win,” he said, arguing that Tehran was “fighting on the battlefield of the global economy”.

Vali Nasr, professor of Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins University, warned that the fallout would be particularly damaging for Gulf economies. He offered radical suggestions including a jointly managed Hormuz transit system, although these proposals drew scepticism among delegates.

Gulf participation at the conference has been limited, but Kuwait Petroleum Corporation chief Sheikh Nawaf Al Sabah took part via video link.

He described Iranian attacks as “holding the world’s economy hostage” and confirming that Kuwait had shut most of its oil production.  

Al Sabah also warned that output could take months to recover even if the conflict ended immediately.

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