PANews reported on October 25th that according to Jinshi, Huatai Securities' research report stated that the US CPI slowed more-than-expected in September, primarily due to an unexpected slowdown in the rent component. While tariffs still contributed to some price increases, the magnitude was relatively modest. The housing component's impact contributed to the unexpected decline in inflation in September. Given the ongoing government shutdown and the overall cooling of the job market, an October interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is highly likely, with a December rate cut also being the baseline scenario. The impact of this round of tariffs on inflation is likely to be relatively small overall but long-lasting, placing relatively limited constraints on Fed rate cuts. However, factors such as the ongoing government shutdown and the expiration of the DOGE buyout program are expected to impact the fragile US job market in the short term. The Fed needs to mitigate the risk of a further weakening of the job market. Therefore, Huatai Securities maintains its forecast for a Fed rate cut in both October and December.PANews reported on October 25th that according to Jinshi, Huatai Securities' research report stated that the US CPI slowed more-than-expected in September, primarily due to an unexpected slowdown in the rent component. While tariffs still contributed to some price increases, the magnitude was relatively modest. The housing component's impact contributed to the unexpected decline in inflation in September. Given the ongoing government shutdown and the overall cooling of the job market, an October interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is highly likely, with a December rate cut also being the baseline scenario. The impact of this round of tariffs on inflation is likely to be relatively small overall but long-lasting, placing relatively limited constraints on Fed rate cuts. However, factors such as the ongoing government shutdown and the expiration of the DOGE buyout program are expected to impact the fragile US job market in the short term. The Fed needs to mitigate the risk of a further weakening of the job market. Therefore, Huatai Securities maintains its forecast for a Fed rate cut in both October and December.

                                                                               Bitcoin’s market cycles may stretch longer as ISM manufacturing data remains weak, hinting at extended macro headwinds and slower business recovery.                     The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has historically aligned with major peaks in Bitcoin’s market cycles — a pattern that, if repeated, could imply a longer-than-usual cycle this time around.The correlation between the ISM PMI and Bitcoin’s (BTC) price was first popularized by Real Vision’s Raoul Pal and has since gained traction among macro-focused crypto analysts.“All 3 past Bitcoin cycle tops have broadly aligned with this monthly, oscillating index,” analyst Colin Talks Crypto noted, referencing the recurring overlap between Bitcoin’s market highs and the PMI’s cyclical peaks.Read more