PA Daily | Gold prices hit a new high; Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a US recession and its expectations for tariff rates

Today's news tips:

Metaplanet announces issuance of 2 billion yen zero-interest ordinary bonds, funds raised will be used to purchase Bitcoin

Spot gold broke through $3,100 per ounce on Monday, setting a new record high

Goldman Sachs raises its forecasts for U.S. recession and tariff rates

10x Research: BTC may fall below $80,000 this week, and multiple risk-averse factors may put pressure on the stock market and affect the cryptocurrency market

Trader Eugene: A medium position SOL long order has been established at $125

Binance will add FUN/USDT and MLN/USDT perpetual contracts, supporting 50x leverage

CoinShares: Digital asset investment products received $226 million in inflows last week

Among the top 500 crypto tokens by market value, SAROS, SQD, and BROCCOLI have seen monthly increases of more than 100%

Regulatory/Macro

Metaplanet announces issuance of 2 billion yen zero-interest ordinary bonds, funds raised will be used to purchase Bitcoin

According to official news, Metaplanet Inc., a Japanese listed company, announced that according to the resolution passed at the board meeting held on March 31, 2025, the company has issued 2 billion yen zero-interest ordinary bonds to EVO FUND. The funds raised from this issuance will be used to purchase Bitcoin.

Spot gold broke through $3,100 per ounce on Monday, setting a new record high

According to Jinshi.com, spot gold maintained its bull market trend, breaking through $3,100 an ounce on Monday, setting a new all-time high again. The intraday increase was 0.5%. It has only been half a month since it broke through $3,000, and it has accumulated an increase of nearly 18% so far this year.

Goldman Sachs raises its forecasts for U.S. recession and tariff rates

According to Jinshi, Goldman Sachs significantly raised its expectations for US tariffs in 2025 in a research report early this morning, warning that escalating trade tensions may seriously affect economic growth, inflation and employment. The bank currently expects the average US tariff rate to rise by 15 percentage points in 2025, higher than the previous baseline of 10 percentage points. The main reason for the increase is that the comprehensive "reciprocal tariffs" announced by Trump on April 2 are expected to impose an average tariff of 15% on all US trading partners, and the average actual impact of tariffs is expected to increase by 9 percentage points. Goldman Sachs raised its US core PCE inflation forecast by the end of 2025 by 0.5 percentage points to 3.5%, citing the impact of rising import costs on inflation. GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.0% in the fourth quarter, down 0.5 percentage points from previous expectations, and the unemployment rate is expected to climb to 4.5% by the end of the year. Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a recession in the United States within 12 months to 35%, citing weak consumer and business sentiment and signs that policymakers may be more willing to accept the pain of the recent economy in pursuit of broader policy goals. As real income growth has slowed, the economy may be entering a more fragile phase, with sentiment and policy risks acting as a bigger drag on the economy than in recent years. In addition, Goldman Sachs said it now expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in July, September and November.

Viewpoint

Matrixport: Ethereum on-chain activity has slowed down significantly, fundamentals are weak, and it is gradually approaching the low point during FTX's bankruptcy

Matrixport officials said that since hitting a high of $3,668 on January 7, 2025, the price of Ethereum has fallen by 50%. At present, the on-chain activity of the Ethereum ecosystem has slowed down significantly, the fundamentals are weak, the demand for ETH continues to be sluggish, and the market sentiment is obviously bearish. With multiple key risk events approaching, the derivatives market has begun to price in a large fluctuation of 10% in the next week (regardless of direction). It is worth noting that the price of Ethereum is gradually approaching the low point during the bankruptcy of FTX, and FTX is expected to start paying major creditors on May 30, 2025.

CryptoQuant: MVRV death cross signal appears, Bitcoin downside risk intensifies

According to CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei dent, the Bitcoin MVRV (market value to realized value ratio) indicator showed a "death cross" signal in early March, with the 30-day moving average crossing the 365-day moving average, indicating that short-term momentum is weakening and downward pressure is increasing. Historical data shows that this signal is usually accompanied by a price correction. With the current MVRV close to the long-term historical average, the market has left the overheated range, but there has not yet been a clear bottom signal, and investors need to be wary of further decline risks.

Analysis: Bitcoin Macro Index shows bearish divergence, which may affect the impact of $110,000

According to Cointelegraph analysis, the Bitcoin Macro Index shows a bearish divergence and key indicators are recovering weakly, adding uncertainty to Bitcoin's path to $110,000.

10x Research: BTC may fall below $80,000 this week, and multiple risk-averse factors may put pressure on the stock market and affect the cryptocurrency market

According to 10x Research, Bitcoin's rally over the past three weeks was frustrated by higher-than-expected core PCE data. The data indicated rising inflation, partly driven by Trump's tariff policy, which weakened consumer confidence. One-year inflation expectations rose to 5.0%, leading to poor performance of risk assets and triggering stops on its short-term bullish strategy. 10x Research expects Bitcoin to fall below $80,000 this week as multiple risk-off factors may put pressure on the stock market and spread to the cryptocurrency market. Trump's tariff policy has shifted from initial mild expectations to more aggressive, and the market is worried that tariffs may be implemented first and the negotiation process will be delayed. This change has significantly increased market uncertainty. In addition, if the ISM manufacturing PMI data is weak, it may increase market pressure; and if the US employment data continues to be strong, it may delay the Fed's intervention, putting further pressure on the market. It is worth noting that the VIX index is still low, indicating that many traders may underestimate the short-term downside risks.

Analysis: Financial giant Vanguard Group may indirectly get involved in cryptocurrencies through GameStop Bitcoin reserves

Financial giant Vanguard Group may soon have indirect exposure to Bitcoin through its GameStop stake, marking an unexpected turn in the company's traditionally cautious approach to cryptocurrencies, according to Bitcoin.com. The development follows a series of moves by GameStop, of which Vanguard Group is one of the largest shareholders. Vanguard is currently the largest institutional shareholder of GameStop. The shareholding relationship has attracted widespread attention after GameStop announced its shift to a Bitcoin strategy. On March 26, Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at asset management firm Bitwise, posted on social media platform X: "Vanguard bought Bitcoin through GameStop, which is incredible." The comment highlights the peculiarity of the event, as Vanguard has long avoided direct involvement in crypto assets. Rasmussen's comments were in response to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, who pointed out that Vanguard is GameStop's largest shareholder. Vanguard's indirect involvement in Bitcoin through GameStop is in stark contrast to its usual digital asset stance. Although asset management companies such as BlackRock and Fidelity have embraced cryptocurrencies by launching Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, Vanguard has chosen to stay out of it. In December 2024, Vanguard reiterated its anti-Bitcoin stance, saying that digital assets are speculative and lack intrinsic value.

Trader Eugene: A medium position SOL long order has been established at $125

Trader Eugene posted on his personal channel that he has established a medium-sized SOL long order at $125. Eugene believes that the market has recently fluctuated violently from $88,000 to $82,000, coupled with GME and Mara catalysts, as well as the extremely unfavorable tariff scenario that may occur before April 2, making this a good risk-reward ratio position, and the stop loss below is also relatively clear.

Project News

Binance will add FUN/USDT and MLN/USDT perpetual contracts, supporting 50x leverage

Binance announced that it will launch two new perpetual contracts, the specific arrangements are as follows: FUNUSDT perpetual contract: will be launched at 16:30 on March 31, 2025, Beijing time, supporting up to 50x leverage. MLNUSDT perpetual contract: will be launched at 16:45 on March 31, 2025, Beijing time, supporting up to 50x leverage.

Musk says US government has no plans to use Dogecoin

According to Decrypt, on March 30, at a town hall meeting hosted by Musk's America PAC in Green Bay, Wisconsin, Musk distanced the Department of Federal Government Efficiency (DOGE) from the Dogecoin cryptocurrency. Musk said: "As far as I know, the government has no plans to use Dogecoin or anything like it. Their names happen to be similar, but in fact, we are just trying to make government efficiency 15% higher."

Important data

Among the top 500 crypto tokens by market value, SAROS, SQD, and BROCCOLI have seen monthly increases of more than 100%

According to SoSoValue data, in the past 30 days, three of the top 500 cryptocurrencies by market value have seen a monthly increase of more than 100%. The specific increase data are as follows: Saros (SAROS) increased by 483.86% and is currently priced at $0.07999; Subsquid (SQD) increased by 119.77% and is currently priced at $0.15764; CZ' Broccoli (BROCCOLI) increased by 113.71% and is currently priced at $0.05191; FUNToken (FUN) increased by 97.84% and is currently priced at $0.00495; Venom (VENOM) increased by 96.93% and is currently priced at $0.11623; Cheems (CHEEMS) increased by 94.51% and is currently priced at $0.01576; Solayer (LAYER) increased by 68.90% and is currently priced at $1.374; FARTCOIN (FAR) increased by 68.90% and is currently priced at $1.374; The price of X Empire (X) increased by 55.17% and is now priced at $0.08401; the price of Alchemist (ALCH) increased by 54.98% and is now priced at $0.06554.

CoinShares: Digital asset investment products received $226 million in inflows last week

According to CoinShares' latest weekly report, digital asset investment products recorded $226 million in inflows last week, indicating that investor sentiment is positive but still cautious. Altcoins recorded $33 million in inflows for the first time after four consecutive weeks of outflows (a total of $1.7 billion). The main beneficiaries were Ethereum ($14.5 million), Solana ($7.8 million), XRP ($4.8 million) and Sui ($4 million). Bitcoin recorded $195 million in inflows last week, while investment products that short Bitcoin saw $2.5 million in outflows for the fourth consecutive week. Due to the recent price drop, the total assets under management of Bitcoin Global ETP fell to $114 billion, the lowest level since the US election. In terms of regional data, the United States, Switzerland and Germany saw inflows of $204 million, $14.7 million and $9.2 million, respectively. Small outflows occurred in Hong Kong ($2.1 million) and Brazil ($1.3 million).

Financing

Capx AI, an Ethereum L2 project dedicated to AI agents, completes $3.14 million seed round of financing, led by Manifold and others

According to official news, Capx AI, an Ethereum Layer2 network for AI agents, has completed a seed round of financing of US$3.14 million, led by Manifold and Luganodes, followed by Echo, P2 Ventures (Polygon Ventures), Gate Labs, Stix, MH Ventures, Blue7, Cogitent Ventures, Autonomy Capital, Next Web Capital, Blockarm Capital, Mythos Venture Partners (MVP), Arcanum Capital and other institutions, and individual investors include well-known industry figures such as Sandeep Nailwal, Richard Ma and Amrit Kumar. According to reports, Capx AI is an Ethereum Layer2 network designed to enable users to build, monetize and trade AI agents. It provides a comprehensive ecosystem consisting of Capx Chain, Capx Super App and Capx Cloud to facilitate the creation, deployment and exchange of AI-driven applications.

DeCharge, a decentralized charging project based on Solana, completes $2.5 million in seed round financing

According to Decrypt, the Solana-based decentralized charging project DeCharge announced the completion of a $2.5 million seed round of financing, led by Lemniscap, with participation from Colosseum, Daedalus, Escape Velocity, and Levitate Labs. According to reports, DeCharge is a community-driven electric vehicle charging network built on Solana. It achieves decentralized ownership and monetization of electric vehicle charging through modular charging stations, allowing anyone to host and operate charging infrastructure.

Arcium, a parallel privacy computing network, completes $1 million in angel round financing

According to official news, the parallel privacy computing project Arcium (formerly known as Elusiv) announced the completion of a $1 million angel round of financing, with investors including Jordi Alexander, Joe McCann, WereMeow, Fedor Holz and RunnerXBT. Arcium said that this round of financing brings its total financing to $11 million. According to reports, Arcium is a decentralized confidential computing network that uses a distributed architecture and multi-party computing (MPC) to ensure data integrity and confidentiality by processing encrypted data across multiple nodes without exposing the complete data set.

AI proxy public chain Hibit completes $5 million financing

AI agent public chain Hibit recently announced the completion of a $5 million financing round, with Bochsler Finance, Nvdia, Bo Shen (Fenbushi Capital), Waterdrip Capital, Web3 Venture, Betterverse DAO, Hitters and many traditional entrepreneurs participating in the investment. This round of funds will be used to promote the ecological construction of Layer2 infrastructure, Hibit DEX, full-chain interoperability technology and AI Agent economy.

According to reports, Hibit is an independent Layer2 that has covered multiple public chains such as TON, Kaspa, Solana, ETH, BTC, BNB, ICP, etc., and provides secure cross-chain solutions without cross-chain bridges. Its core product, Hibit DEX, integrates the features of CEX and DEX to serve AI agent and Meme community scenarios.

Singapore digital asset startup BetterX completes approximately US$1.7 million in Pre-Series A funding

Singapore-based digital asset infrastructure provider BetterX announced the completion of a S$2.3 million (approximately US$1.7 million) Pre-Series A round of financing to support its expansion in Asia, the Middle East, and the United States. The round attracted new investors, including Grand Prix Capital, Aument Capital, and angel investors such as Sabrina Tachdjian of the HBAR Foundation and Riaz Mehta of Crypto Knights. Existing backers, including Aura Group and Tibra co-founder Kinsey Cotton, also participated in the round. Previous investors Scalare Partners, Wholesale Investor, B7 Capital, and the founders of Audacy Ventures also participated in the round.