turnaround drags, China sales slump

When Nike reported fiscal third-quarter earnings on Tuesday night, investors were looking for evidence its recovery is on track.

Instead, they learned that the retailer’s turnaround is far from over, sending shares tumbling more than 15% on Wednesday. 

During a call with analysts, finance chief Matt Friend warned sales would slide by a low single-digit percentage through the end of this calendar year, as a decline in China is expected to offset growing strength in North America.

The company anticipates sales will fall between 2% and 4% in the current quarter, worse than the 1.9% growth analysts had expected, while it expects China sales will plunge 20% — even with a 2 percentage point benefit from foreign exchange rates. Efforts to clean up Nike’s assortment in China and drive full-price sales are expected to continue — and remain a drag on revenue growth — through fiscal 2027, slated to end next spring. 

The company expects to begin lapping the period when it started to get hit by higher tariffs in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, slated for this summer, which could give it easier year-over-year profit comparisons. Executives expect gross margins could begin expanding by the end of the year during the retailer’s fiscal 2027 second quarter — if they do at all. 

Nike’s gross margin has declined year over year for seven straight quarters, and it may be harder to boost the metric now because product input costs could rise due to the war in the Middle East. 

“The environment around us has become increasingly dynamic, and we could experience unplanned volatility due to the disruption in the Middle East, rising oil prices, and other factors that could impact either input costs or consumer behavior,” said Friend. “We are focused on what we can control, and these assumptions reflect the macro environment as it stands today.” 

The lagging turnaround, the persistent bad news and the number of business arms Nike needs to fix to stabilize the entire enterprise left investors soured. The few pockets of good news — better-than-expected sales in China, growing wholesale revenues, continued growth in North America — weren’t enough to boost the stock. 

On Wednesday morning, three of Wall Street’s biggest banks, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Bank of America, all downgraded the stock, citing the dragging turnaround, growing headwinds and dwindling patience. 

“We thought improved performance product innovation and lapping Win Now actions would result in a return to growth in 1Q27; instead, management has initiated guidance for sales to remain negative into 3Q27,” Bank of America analyst Lorraine Hutchinson said in a Wednesday note to clients. “Strong results in running and NA were the reasons for our patience but with the sales inflection now nine months away, we see little room for multiple expansion, leading to our downgrade.”

Throughout Nike’s call with analysts on Tuesday, Friend and CEO Elliott Hill kept predicting a return to sustained growth, but were once again vague about the timeline. 

“We are increasingly confident we are on track to return to balanced growth in North America across both Nike Direct and wholesale channels in the near term,” Friend said. 

In his remarks, Hill said again that recovery is taking more time than he expected. 

“This is complex work, and parts of it are taking longer than I’d like, but the direction is clear,” said Hill. “The urgency is real, and the foundation is getting stronger.”