Markets Share Share this article Copy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmail Bitcoin's massive underperformance to stocks Markets Share Share this article Copy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmail Bitcoin's massive underperformance to stocks

Bitcoin's massive underperformance to stocks in Q4 bodes well for January, says K33's Lunde

2025/12/17 04:41
Share
Share this article
Copy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmail

Bitcoin's massive underperformance to stocks in Q4 bodes well for January, says K33's Lunde

After an active morning Tuesday, bitcoin flattened out in afternoon trading around the $87,500 area, up 2% over the past 24 hours.

By Helene Braun, Krisztian Sandor|Edited by Stephen Alpher
Dec 16, 2025, 8:41 p.m.
Bearish Q4 action could lead to Q1 bull move (CoinDesk)

What to know:

  • Bitcoin held in the $87,500 in U.S. afternoon action on Tuesday, up 2% over the past 24 hours.
  • K33 analyst Vetle Lunde suggested BTC's relative weakness to stocks this quarter could mean rebalancing-led buying once January rolls around.

After an active morning, bitcoin BTC$87,786.94 stayed largely flat in the $87,500 area in U.S. afternoon trade, holding gains around the 2% over the past 24 hours. Altcoins, including ether ETH$2,962.03, XRP$1.9345 and solana SOL$128.18 showed similar upside action.

Crypto-related stocks were also seeing bounces after Monday's plunge, including a 3% gain for Strategy (MSTR) and a 1% advance for Coinbase (COIN).

STORY CONTINUES BELOW
Don't miss another story.Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today. See all newsletters
Sign me up

Read more: Bitcoin bounces from Monday's worst levels, but sub-$80,000 may come next, analyst says

“Clients are positioned with cautious optimism," said Josh Barkhoarder, head of sales at FalconX. "In the short term, most expect crypto to remain range-bound until we see a clear catalyst, so they’re holding core bitcoin exposure and sitting on cash elsewhere."

BTC may benefit from rebalancing, analyst says

With year-end approaching, bitcoin may benefit from its sluggish performance compared to other asset classes through the quarter as asset managers rebalance their portfolios to maintain their mandated allocation, noted Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33.

Earlier this year, when BTC underperformed the S&P 500 index through the first quarter, it started the next with gains, according to Lunde. Conversely, when BTC outperformed equities in the second quarter, it booked declines in the beginning of the third.

So far in the fourth quarter, bitcoin has underperformed the S&P 500 by a whopping 26%, suggesting that a sizable rebalancing is be due.

"Fund managers with predetermined BTC allocation targets may adjust weights into year-end, potentially resulting in excess inflows during the final trading days of the year and into early January," Lunde continued.

Crypto traders hesitant

Despite prices stabilizing, market participants remain hesitant to take on new risk, K33's Lunde added.

Derivatives activity on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) remains near yearly lows, with BTC futures open interest hovering around 124,000 BTC, he wrote. On perpetual swap markets, funding rates hovered around the neutral rate with open interest showing little movement, signaling lack of short-term directional conviction.

Declining spot crypto trading volumes, down 12% through last week, also confirms that many traders remain reluctant to engage as the year is drawing to a close.

Bitcoin News

More For You

Protocol Research: GoPlus Security

Commissioned byGoPlus

What to know:

  • As of October 2025, GoPlus has generated $4.7M in total revenue across its product lines. The GoPlus App is the primary revenue driver, contributing $2.5M (approx. 53%), followed by the SafeToken Protocol at $1.7M.
  • GoPlus Intelligence's Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025 , with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month.
  • Since its January 2025 launch , the $GPS token has registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025. Monthly spot volume peaked in March 2025 at over $1.1B , while derivatives volume peaked the same month at over $4B.
View Full Report

More For You

Bitcoin derivatives point to broad price range play between $85,000-$100,000

BTC options flow points to expectations for a broad range play rather than a massive surge or crash.

What to know:

  • Bitcoin's derivatives market shows stability, with strong support at $85,000 and resistance between $95,000 and $100,000.
  • Traders are selling put options at $85,000, indicating confidence that bitcoin won't fall below this level soon.
  • Call options are being sold at $100,000.
Read full story
Latest Crypto News

Bitcoin derivatives point to broad price range play between $85,000-$100,000

U.S. Senate's Warren asks for Trump-tied crypto probe as market structure bill drags

BNB tops $870, outperforming crypto majors as volume surges

Marshall Islands launches world’s first blockchain-based UBI on Stellar blockchain

Polkadot advances as Coinbase unlocks integration with USDC stablecoin

Eric Trump’s American Bitcoin jumps to 20th among public BTC treasury companies

Top Stories

U.S. FDIC proposes first U.S. stablecoin rule to emerge from GENIUS Act

Bitcoin derivatives point to broad price range play between $85,000-$100,000

U.S. Senate's Warren asks for Trump-tied crypto probe as market structure bill drags

Bitcoin bounces from Monday's worst levels, but sub-$80,000 may come next, analyst says

Eric Trump’s American Bitcoin jumps to 20th among public BTC treasury companies

U.S. added 64,000 jobs in November, with unemployment rate jumping to four-year high of 4.6%

Piyasa Fırsatı
WELL3 Logosu
WELL3 Fiyatı(WELL)
$0.0000103
$0.0000103$0.0000103
0.00%
USD
WELL3 (WELL) Canlı Fiyat Grafiği
Sorumluluk Reddi: Bu sitede yeniden yayınlanan makaleler, halka açık platformlardan alınmıştır ve yalnızca bilgilendirme amaçlıdır. MEXC'nin görüşlerini yansıtmayabilir. Tüm hakları telif sahiplerine aittir. Herhangi bir içeriğin üçüncü taraf haklarını ihlal ettiğini düşünüyorsanız, kaldırılması için lütfen service@support.mexc.com ile iletişime geçin. MEXC, içeriğin doğruluğu, eksiksizliği veya güncelliği konusunda hiçbir garanti vermez ve sağlanan bilgilere dayalı olarak alınan herhangi bir eylemden sorumlu değildir. İçerik, finansal, yasal veya diğer profesyonel tavsiye niteliğinde değildir ve MEXC tarafından bir tavsiye veya onay olarak değerlendirilmemelidir.

Ayrıca Şunları da Beğenebilirsiniz

Crypto Market Cap Edges Up 2% as Bitcoin Approaches $118K After Fed Rate Trim

Crypto Market Cap Edges Up 2% as Bitcoin Approaches $118K After Fed Rate Trim

The global crypto market cap rose 2% to $4.2 trillion on Thursday, lifted by Bitcoin’s steady climb toward $118,000 after the Fed delivered its first interest rate cut of the year. Gains were measured, however, as investors weighed the central bank’s cautious tone on future policy moves. Bitcoin last traded 1% higher at $117,426. Ether rose 2.8% to $4,609. XRP also gained, rising 2.9% to $3.10. Fed Chair Jerome Powell described Wednesday’s quarter-point reduction as a risk-management step, stressing that policymakers were in no hurry to speed up the easing cycle. His comments dampened expectations of more aggressive cuts, limiting enthusiasm across risk assets. Traders Anticipated Fed Rate Trim, Leaving Little Room for Surprise Rally The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-to-1 to lower the benchmark lending rate to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%. The sole dissent came from newly appointed governor Stephen Miran, who pushed for a half-point cut. Traders were largely prepared for the move. Futures markets tracked by the CME FedWatch tool had assigned a 96% probability to a 25 basis point cut, making the decision widely anticipated. That advance positioning meant much of the potential boost was already priced in, creating what analysts described as a “buy the rumour, sell the news” environment. Fed Rate Decision Creates Conditions for Crypto, But Traders Still Hold Back Andrew Forson, president of DeFi Technologies, said lower borrowing costs would eventually steer more money toward digital assets. “A lower cost of capital indicates more capital flows into the digital assets space because the risk hurdle rate for money is lower,” he noted. He added that staking products and blockchain projects could become attractive alternatives to traditional bonds, offering both yield and appreciation. Despite the cut, crypto markets remained calm. Open interest in Bitcoin futures held steady and no major liquidation cascades followed the Fed’s decision. Analysts pointed to Powell’s language and upcoming economic data as the key factors for traders before building larger positions. Powell’s Caution Tempers Immediate Impact of Fed Rate Move on Crypto Markets History also suggests crypto rallies after rate cuts often take time. When the Fed eased in Dec. 2024, Bitcoin briefly surged 5% cent before consolidating, with sustained gains arriving only weeks later. This time, market watchers are bracing for a similar pattern. Powell’s insistence on caution, combined with uncertainty around inflation and growth, has kept short-term volatility muted even as sentiment for risk assets improves. BitMine’s Tom Lee this week predicted that Bitcoin and Ether could deliver “monster gains” in the next three months if the Fed continues on an easing path. His view echoes broader expectations that liquidity-sensitive assets will outperform once the cycle gathers pace. For now, the crypto sector has digested the Fed’s move with restraint. Traders remain focused on signals from the central bank’s October meeting to determine whether Wednesday’s step marks the beginning of a broader policy shift or just a one-off adjustment
Paylaş
CryptoNews2025/09/18 13:14
Vitalik Buterin Reveals Ethereum’s Long-Term Focus on Quantum Resistance

Vitalik Buterin Reveals Ethereum’s Long-Term Focus on Quantum Resistance

TLDR Ethereum focuses on quantum resistance to secure the blockchain’s future. Vitalik Buterin outlines Ethereum’s long-term development with security goals. Ethereum aims for improved transaction efficiency and layer-2 scalability. Ethereum maintains a strong market position with price stability above $4,000. Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of Ethereum, has shared insights into the blockchain’s long-term development. During [...] The post Vitalik Buterin Reveals Ethereum’s Long-Term Focus on Quantum Resistance appeared first on CoinCentral.
Paylaş
Coincentral2025/09/18 00:31
Federal Reserve Officials Forecast 2025 Rate Cuts

Federal Reserve Officials Forecast 2025 Rate Cuts

Detail: https://coincu.com/markets/federal-reserve-2025-rate-cuts/
Paylaş
Coinstats2025/09/18 13:11